China's clean-tech exports on track to avoid as much CO2 as Brazil emits, report says
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China's 2026 clean-tech exports are on track to avoid about 450 million metric tons of CO2 a year once installed, roughly Brazil's annual fossil fuel emissions, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
Over the equipment's lifetime, this year's exports could avoid 8.4 billion tons, CREA estimates.
Electric car and heavy vehicle shipments rose 61% in the first three quarters, wind turbines 45%, batteries 39% and solar 22%.
The U.S. ranks second only to India in emissions avoided by Chinese clean-tech imports, despite higher tariffs, CREA said.
China is exporting record amounts of solar panels, batteries, wind turbines and electric vehicles, and those shipments are on track to cut carbon dioxide emissions outside China by about 2% this year, according to an analysis released Thursday, Oct. 29.
The Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, in an analysis by lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta published by the climate site Carbon Brief, estimated that clean-tech goods China exports in 2026 will avoid about 450 million metric tons of CO2 a year once installed, if current trends hold through year's end. That is roughly equal to Brazil's annual fossil fuel emissions and up from 370 million tons for 2025 exports.
The Associated Press reported that the surge comes as the energy crisis tied to the Iran war drives demand for renewables.
What grew
According to CREA, shipments of electric cars and heavy vehicles grew 61% year over year in the first three quarters of 2026. Wind turbine exports rose 45%, batteries 39%, solar 22% and electric two-wheelers 21%.
CREA estimates the wind and solar equipment China exports this year will generate about 800 terawatt-hours of electricity annually, comparable to roughly 100 coal-fired power plants. Solar remains the biggest driver: in 2025, China exported panels and components equal to 436 gigawatts of generating capacity.
Lifetime impact and manufacturing emissions
Over the equipment's working life, CREA said, 2026 exports are on track to avoid 8.4 billion tons of CO2, about the combined annual emissions of the United States and India. That is up from 6.8 billion tons for 2025 exports and 5 billion tons for 2024. The lifetime figures assume 20 years for solar and wind, 10 for vehicles and batteries and five for two-wheelers.
The analysis subtracts emissions from manufacturing in China. For 2025, CREA put those at about 170 million tons, against 370 million tons avoided abroad, meaning the exported goods paid back their manufacturing emissions in about six months.
Most exports by value went to wealthier nations, but CREA found 76% of lifetime avoided emissions occur in the global south, including 52% in south and southeast Asia, where solar panels are displacing power from carbon-heavy grids.
The U.S. picture
Among individual countries, the U.S. has the second-largest avoided emissions after India, CREA said, rising 12% in 2026 despite increased tariffs. Chinese solar exports to the U.S. rose 13% in the first three quarters once rerouting through third countries is counted, and EV and battery exports rose 3%. CREA noted that each gigawatt of solar installed in the U.S. avoids about three times as much CO2 as in the EU because of stronger sunlight and a more carbon-intensive grid.
The catch
CREA found Chinese exports have largely opened new markets rather than displacing other producers, though wind turbines were an exception at the global level. Falling prices have shrunk export revenue for manufacturers elsewhere that only held their sales volumes steady. CREA also warned that a slowdown in China's domestic solar market could push more panels overseas and add to trade tensions. The findings arrive ahead of next month's COP31 climate summit.
Sources: CREA analysis for Carbon Brief; Associated Press; Reuters.
Cover photo: AlfvanBeem / Wikimedia Commons (CC0).
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