Monday Night Line: Bills at Rams, lines and leans for MNF

Monday Night Line | Betting analysis

For entertainment and information only. Bet responsibly, 21+ in Oregon.

The matchup

Week 5 closes tonight at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, where the Los Angeles Rams (2-2) host the Buffalo Bills (3-1) at 5:15 p.m. PT. It is the only Monday night game on the schedule, and it carries real stakes for both sides.

Buffalo sits first in the AFC East but is coming off a painful late loss to New England, and a second straight defeat would cost the Bills the division lead. The Rams are third in the NFC West, looking up at an undefeated San Francisco team that just won 32-29 in Seattle. A win tonight would pull Los Angeles even with the 3-2 Seahawks.

The lines

Odds from Covers.com consensus, checked at 3:15 p.m. PT Monday, Oct. 12:

Spread: Rams -3.5 (+100), Bills +3.5 (-115)

Total: 54.5 (Over -108, Under -102)

Moneyline: Rams -170, Bills +150

The market has moved toward Los Angeles. FanDuel Research lists the opener at Rams -2.5 with a total of 53.5, so the spread has crossed the key number of 3 and the total has climbed a full point. Lines move, so check your own book before kickoff.

Three key factors

Injuries. Buffalo has ruled out defensive tackle Ed Oliver and receiver Joshua Palmer, and receiver DJ Moore is listed as questionable, according to pregame injury reports. Losing Oliver hurts a Bills pass rush that needs to make Matthew Stafford uncomfortable. Watch the final inactive list about 90 minutes before kickoff.

Matchups. Both offenses produce explosive plays. Buffalo averages about 5.1 yards per rush and Josh Allen is averaging around 8.3 yards per pass attempt, per pregame analysis from Tony's Picks. The Bills' weakness is their defense, which ranks near the bottom of the league in expected points allowed. The Rams counter with a defense that has held opponents to about 33 percent on third down.

Trends. Both teams have gone over the posted total in seven of their last 10 games, according to TheSpread.com. Betting splits there also show most spread tickets on Buffalo even as the number moved toward the Rams, a sign that larger bets have backed Los Angeles.

Our leans

These are leans, not locks.

Spread: Bills +3.5. Getting more than a field goal with Allen in a bounce-back spot is worth a look, and one model we reviewed has its fair line at Rams -2, a point and a half below the market.

Total: Over 54.5. It is a big number, but two high-scoring offenses, a thin Buffalo defensive front and a 7-of-10 over trend for both teams point toward points.

Player prop: Josh Allen anytime touchdown (about -120 at DraftKings, per CBS Sports). Allen remains Buffalo's top red zone weapon with his legs, and the Bills have converted about 69 percent of their red zone trips.

Season record

Season record: 0-0 (first column)

Disclaimer

This column is for entertainment and information only and is not financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and you could lose money. Bet only what you can afford to lose, and only where it's legal for you; in Oregon, you must be 21 or older. If gambling stops being fun, help is free and confidential: call 1-877-MY-LIMIT (1-877-695-4648) or visit OPGR.org.

Cover photo: SoFi Stadium, by Ron Reiring, via Wikimedia Commons, licensed CC BY 2.0.