Market pulse: Early returns push Democrats' Senate odds past 90% as Texas swings (Nov. 3)
Quick Read
As early returns came in Tuesday evening, Kalshi traders raised Democrats' chances of winning the U.S. Senate from about 74% to about 94%.
Texas saw the biggest swings: Democrat Gina Hinojosa went from about 39% to about 79% to beat Gov. Greg Abbott, and Democrat James Talarico rose to about 92% in the Senate race.
Not every move went one way: Republican Byron Donalds jumped from about 65% to about 92% in the Florida governor's race.
Most races were still uncalled when these prices were checked, about 5:10 p.m. Pacific, and Oregon's polls had not closed.
Election night is when prediction markets move the fastest, and Tuesday's first hours did not disappoint.
As of about 5:10 p.m. Pacific, Kalshi's Senate control market priced Democrats at about 94 cents on the dollar to win the chamber, up from about 74 cents a day earlier. Roughly 7 million Democratic contracts and more than 12 million Republican contracts changed hands in a day. Polymarket's Senate market showed the same direction, with Democrats near 91.5%, up about 15 points.
The House barely moved because it was already lopsided. Kalshi's House control market had Democrats at about 98%, up from about 93%.
This is a market, not a forecast
These prices show what traders were willing to pay at one moment on election night. They are not results and not a prediction from Willamette News. Early returns often come from one type of ballot or one part of a state, and markets can overreact to them. Most of the races below had not been called by the Associated Press when prices were checked; the AP's first Senate call of the night was Democrat Mark Warner's reelection in Virginia, according to its live coverage.
Texas is the headline
The sharpest swing was in Texas. On Kalshi's Texas governor market, Democrat Gina Hinojosa went from about 39% to about 79% to defeat Gov. Greg Abbott, who fell from about 61% to about 22%. More than 8 million Abbott contracts traded in a day.
In the Texas Senate race, Kalshi traders pushed Democrat James Talarico from about 73% to about 92% over Republican Ken Paxton, on more than 20 million Paxton contracts. Early Texas returns favored Talarico, but only a small share of the expected vote had been counted.
Other big moves
South Carolina Senate: Democrat Annie Andrews went from about 32% to about 74% on Kalshi. Polymarket was more cautious at about 60.5%.
Iowa Senate: Democrat Josh Turek rose from about 52% to about 68% on Kalshi, before Iowa's polls had even closed.
Other Senate races: Kansas Democrat Adam Hamilton rose from about 62% to about 81%, Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed from about 78% to about 90%, and Maine Democrat Troy Jackson from about 71% to about 82% against Sen. Susan Collins.
Florida governor: Republican Byron Donalds jumped from about 65% to about 92% over Democrat David Jolly on Kalshi, one of the night's biggest moves toward a Republican.
Other governor races: Georgia Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms rose from about 69% to about 88%, and Ohio Democrat Amy Acton from about 83% to about 94% over Vivek Ramaswamy.
The Oregon read
Oregon's races were steady because Oregon's polls had not closed yet. On Kalshi's Oregon governor market, Gov. Tina Kotek was priced at about 83% to win reelection over Republican Christine Drazan, up from about 81%. Sen. Jeff Merkley stayed at about 99%.
Oregon ballots must be in an official drop box by 8 p.m. Tuesday. The first Oregon results post after that. Willamette News will follow them.
Sources: Kalshi Senate control market, Kalshi House control market, Kalshi Texas governor market, Kalshi Texas Senate market, Kalshi South Carolina Senate market, Kalshi Iowa Senate market, Kalshi Florida governor market, Kalshi Oregon governor market, Polymarket Senate market, Polymarket South Carolina Senate market, AP live coverage. Market prices were checked about 5:10 p.m. PT on Nov. 3, 2026, compared with prices a day earlier, and will have changed since. Cover photo: Architect of the Capitol / Wikimedia Commons, public domain.
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For information only, not betting or investment advice. Prediction markets reflect trader prices, not certainties. Willamette News has no financial relationship with Kalshi or Polymarket.
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