Market pulse: Election-eve traders push Democrats' Senate odds to a record and flip Iowa (Nov. 2)

Willamette News Staff

16 hours ago

4 min read

The west front of the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., with its white dome against a blue sky and a green lawn in front — The U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C. File photo. Photo: Architect of the Capitol / Wikimedia Commons, public domain

Quick Read

Kalshi traders priced Democrats at about 74% to win control of the U.S. Senate on Monday, after touching a record 75% earlier in the day, up from about 63% a month ago.
The odds that Democrats end up with more than 52 Senate seats jumped from about 47% to about 59% in a single day, with roughly 840,000 contracts trading.
Iowa flipped: Democrat Josh Turek became a slight favorite over Republican Ashley Hinson for the first time, about 51% to 49% on Kalshi.
In Oregon, traders price Gov. Tina Kotek at about 81% to win reelection and Sen. Jeff Merkley at about 99%.

The night before the midterm elections, prediction-market traders made one last move, and it ran in Democrats' direction.

As of about 5 p.m. Pacific on Monday, Kalshi's Senate control market priced Democrats at about 74 cents on the dollar to win the chamber, roughly a 74% chance in traders' eyes. Kalshi said the market hit an all-time high of 75% on Monday, about 11 points above where it sat in early October. Polymarket's Senate market was a little higher, near 76.5%, up about 5 points in a day.

The House looks even more lopsided to traders. Kalshi's House control market had Democrats at about 93%, and Polymarket was near 94.5%.

This is a market, not a forecast

Prediction-market prices show what traders are willing to pay right now. They are not a prediction from Willamette News, and they will swing hard once real votes are counted Tuesday night. A 74% chance is not a sure thing: an outcome priced that way still misses about one time in four.

The bigger move: how many seats

The sharpest swing Monday was not about who controls the Senate but by how much. On Kalshi's Senate seat-count market, the chance that Democrats hold more than 52 seats in the next Congress jumped from about 47% to about 59%, most of it between 1 and 3 p.m. Pacific. About 840,000 contracts on that one outcome changed hands in the past day.

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control. Traders also nudged Democrats up in several Republican-held races Monday, including Kansas, where Adam Hamilton rose from about 57% to about 62%, and South Carolina, where Annie Andrews rose from about 28% to about 33%, though she remains the underdog. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed climbed from about 73% to about 77% to hold the open seat.

Iowa tips, barely

The closest race on the board flipped. On Kalshi's Iowa Senate market, Democrat Josh Turek rose from about 45% to about 51%, making him the favorite over Republican Ashley Hinson for the first time. Kalshi noted that Hinson was priced above 80% when the market opened, according to its market blog. Polymarket's Iowa market showed nearly the same thing, Turek about 50.5%, up 8 points in a day.

Traders were reacting in part to the final New York Times/Siena polls, which showed Democrats leading in all seven Senate battlegrounds the paper surveyed, Axios reported. Iowa was the tightest, with Turek at 48% and Hinson at 47%.

Why some people are skeptical

Markets often lean on the same polls everyone else reads, so they can share the same blind spots. Axios noted that New York Times polling chief Nate Cohn warned white Democrats were about 30% more likely than white Republicans to answer the final Times/Siena surveys, a slightly wider gap than in 2020, when polls overstated Democratic support. Washington Post pollsters raised a similar concern in Kansas.

The Oregon read

Oregon's statewide races are not drawing big late swings. On Kalshi's Oregon governor market, traders priced Gov. Tina Kotek at about 81% to win reelection over Republican Christine Drazan, unchanged on the day. A separate Kalshi market on the margin is close to a coin flip on whether Kotek wins by 5 points or more. Sen. Jeff Merkley was priced at about 99% to keep his seat.

Oregon votes by mail. Ballots can be returned to an official drop box until 8 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 3. Willamette News will follow the results.

Sources: Kalshi Senate control market, Kalshi House control market, Kalshi Senate seat-count market, Kalshi Iowa Senate market, Kalshi Oregon governor market, Kalshi market blog, Polymarket Senate market, Polymarket Iowa Senate market, Axios. Market prices were checked about 5 p.m. PT on Nov. 2, 2026, and will have changed since. Cover photo: Architect of the Capitol / Wikimedia Commons, public domain.