Market pulse: Ravens go from favorites to 4-to-1 underdogs for Thursday after Lamar Jackson's thumb injury (Nov. 2)
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Kalshi traders now give the Baltimore Ravens about a 21% chance to beat Jacksonville on Thursday night, down from about 57% before Sunday's 36-10 loss at Buffalo.
Lamar Jackson needs surgery on his right thumb and is headed to injured reserve, and backup Tyler Huntley is having an MRI on a suspected turf toe.
The Ravens' chances of making the playoffs fell from about 62% to about 17%, and their AFC North odds dropped from about 23% to about 3%.
Polymarket shows nearly the same swing, with the Jaguars at about 79.5% to win Thursday's game.
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A day ago, prediction-market traders liked the Baltimore Ravens to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars at home on Thursday night. One injury-filled afternoon in Buffalo later, the crowd has flipped hard the other way.
As of about 10 a.m. Pacific on Monday, Kalshi's NFL game market priced the Ravens at about 21 cents on the dollar to win Thursday's game, roughly a 21% chance in traders' eyes. Before Sunday's game, Baltimore sat near 57 cents. The Jaguars jumped from about 44 cents to about 80 cents. About 85,000 contracts on each side changed hands in the past day, a busy board for a game still three days away.
This is a market, not a forecast
Prediction-market prices show what traders are willing to pay right now. They are not a prediction from Willamette News, and they can move again fast. The Ravens have not said who will start Thursday, and a quarterback signing or trade this week could shift the numbers. Treat these prices as the crowd's current read, nothing more.
What happened in Buffalo
Jackson, back after missing three games with an ankle injury, hurt his right thumb on Baltimore's first offensive snap when his throwing hand hit a Bills defender on a pass to Zay Flowers, NFL.com reported. Coach Jesse Minter said after the 36-10 loss that Jackson will have surgery and go on injured reserve, which means he misses at least four games. Asked whether it could end Jackson's season, Minter said "we'll see," according to the AP.
Then backup Tyler Huntley hurt his toe in the first half. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported it is believed to be turf toe, and Huntley is getting an MRI on Monday, ProFootballTalk noted. Undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano finished the game, going 10 of 21 for 91 yards with an interception. Fagnano told The Athletic he thinks he can play Thursday, per NBC Sports, but the Ravens have no quarterback on the practice squad and are expected to add at least one this week. Fans following the Ravens' scramble can find Ravens gear on Amazon.
The season markets fell too
The damage did not stop at Thursday. On Kalshi's playoff market, Baltimore's chances of reaching the postseason fell from about 62% to about 17%. On the AFC North market, the Ravens slid from about 23% to about 3%, while Cincinnati rose from about 45% to about 55% and Pittsburgh from about 20% to about 32%.
Kalshi traders also cut the 4-4 Ravens' chances of winning the AFC from about 10% to about 2%, and their Super Bowl odds from about 6% to about 2%, with nearly 195,000 Ravens title contracts trading in the past day. Polymarket's championship market had Baltimore at about 1.3% on Monday morning.
Jaguars ride the wave
Jacksonville (5-2) is coming off a 42-7 blowout of the Indianapolis Colts, the Florida Times-Union reported, and now gets a Ravens team that may start a rookie making his first NFL start. Polymarket's game market had the Jaguars at about 79.5% on Monday, up about 31 points in a day. Jaguars fans can find Jaguars gear on Amazon.
Kickoff is 5:15 p.m. Pacific on Thursday, Nov. 5, at M&T Bank Stadium. Willamette News' Thursday Night Line column will break down the lines and leans before the game.
Sources: Kalshi NFL game market, Kalshi NFL playoff market, Kalshi AFC North market, Kalshi Super Bowl market, Polymarket Jaguars vs. Ravens market, Polymarket 2027 champion market, NFL.com, AP, ProFootballTalk, NBC Sports, Florida Times-Union. Market prices were checked about 10 a.m. PT on Nov. 2, 2026, and will have changed since. Cover photo: Jstuby / Wikimedia Commons, CC0.
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For information only, not betting or investment advice. Prediction markets reflect trader prices, not certainties. Willamette News has no financial relationship with Kalshi or Polymarket.
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