Monday Night Line: Bears at Seahawks, lines and leans for MNF (Nov. 1)
Quick Read
The Chicago Bears (5-2) visit the Seattle Seahawks (4-3) on Monday Night Football at 5:15 p.m. PT on ESPN and ABC, the only game Monday.
DraftKings has Seattle favored by 3 with a total of 46.5, down from a Seahawks -4.5 opener and a 47.5 total.
Our leans: Bears +3, Under 46.5 and Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 97.5 receiving yards.
Last Thursday's picks went 2-1, so the combined Night Line record is 7-11-0 and the Monday Night Line is 3-6-0.
Monday Night Line | Betting analysis
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The matchup
Week 8 closes Monday night at Lumen Field in Seattle, where the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks (4-3) host the Chicago Bears (5-2) at 5:15 p.m. PT on ESPN and ABC. It is the only Monday night game on the schedule, and the Seahawks are the closest NFL team to the Willamette Valley.
Seattle is coming off a 20-3 win over Kansas City last Sunday night, when the Chiefs failed to score a touchdown for the first time with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, the Associated Press reported. The Seahawks lead the NFL in allowing 233.9 yards a game and 144.4 passing yards a game, per the AP. Chicago has won two straight, 31-23 at Atlanta and 30-24 over New England last Thursday, and Caleb Williams has thrown for more than 300 yards in back-to-back games since returning from a hamstring injury. The Bears lead the league with 154.3 rushing yards a game. Seattle beat Chicago 6-3 in their last meeting, on Dec. 26, 2024, in Chicago, and leads the series 12-8.
Last week grading
Thursday Night Line (Panthers at Packers, final Packers 27, Panthers 19): Panthers +3.5 lost (Green Bay won by 8), Under 46.5 won (46 points), Chuba Hubbard over 67.5 rushing yards won (22 carries for 81 yards and a touchdown, per the ESPN box score). Thursday Night Line is 4-5-0. Nothing else was left to grade, so the Monday Night Line stays at 3-6-0.
The lines
Odds from DraftKings via ESPN, checked at about 7:57 p.m. PT Sunday, Nov. 1:
Spread: Seahawks -3 (-115), Bears +3 (-105)
Total: 46.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Moneyline: Seahawks -170, Bears +142
The market has moved toward Chicago. DraftKings opened Seattle as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 47.5 and the Seahawks at -218 on the moneyline, so the spread has come down 1.5 points to the key number of 3 and the total has dropped a point. Lines move, so check your own book before kickoff.
Three key factors
Injuries. Seattle has ruled out left tackle Charles Cross (ankle), receiver and returner Rashid Shaheed (knee) and running back Velus Jones Jr. (hamstring), and outside linebacker Uchenna Nwosu (ankle) is doubtful, per the official NFL injury report and Seahawks.com. Guard Anthony Bradford (knee), backup quarterback Drew Lock (right elbow), linebacker Patrick O'Connell (toe) and defensive tackle Brandon Pili (back) are questionable. Running back Zach Charbonnet has no game designation and will make his season debut after tearing his ACL in the playoffs in January, coach Mike Macdonald confirmed, ESPN reported. Rookie running back Jadarian Price is also cleared medically but would have to be activated from injured reserve by Monday. Chicago has ruled out running back Kyle Monangai (thumb, toe), with linebacker D'Marco Jackson (ankle) and cornerback Malik Muhammad (toe) questionable. Tight end Cole Kmet is out for the season with a knee injury, the AP reported, and safety Coby Bryant is on injured reserve, per ESPN. The Bears get defensive end Montez Sweat back from a two-game suspension and linebacker T.J. Edwards back from a hamstring injury, and newly acquired All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons is expected to make his debut, though coach Ben Johnson said he probably will not play a full load, according to the Bears and Bears Wire. Watch the final inactive list about 90 minutes before kickoff.
Matchups. This is strength against strength. Chicago's league-best run game meets a Seattle defense that has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 36 straight games, the longest current streak in the NFL, according to the AP. D'Andre Swift leads the Bears with seven rushing touchdowns, per ESPN, but Chicago will be without its second-leading rusher in Monangai. On the other side, Seattle plays without its starting left tackle in front of Sam Darnold, who has thrown for 1,290 yards with eight touchdowns and eight interceptions, per ESPN. The Seahawks did trade for guard Quenton Nelson this week, and the Bears' website calls Simmons against Nelson the key matchup. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the engine of the Seattle offense, leading the NFL with 123.9 receiving yards a game and eight touchdown catches, per the AP, and Shaheed's absence takes away Darnold's other speed option. Chicago's defense is allowing a 26% conversion rate on third down and just 9.7 second-half points a game, the AP reported.
Trends. Chicago is 5-2 against the spread this season and Seattle is 3-4, per the AP. The Bears last played on Thursday, Oct. 22, so they come in with 11 days between games, while Seattle played last Sunday night. Seattle's last two games produced 31 and 23 total points, while Chicago's last two each landed on 54. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives Seattle a 55.1% chance to win. The forecast at Lumen Field, via ESPN, calls for about 50 degrees with gusts near 5 mph and no rain in the outlook.
Our leans
These are leans, not locks. We went 2-1 on Thursday, but the Monday Night Line is 3-6-0, so take them for what they are.
Spread: Bears +3 (-105). Chicago has covered five of seven, gets extra rest after a Thursday game and catches Seattle without its starting left tackle and Shaheed. Darnold's eight interceptions give a Bears defense that adds Simmons and gets Sweat and Edwards back a chance to steal possessions. The risk is real: Seattle's defense just held Kansas City without a touchdown, and the line sits right on 3.
Total: Under 46.5 (-110). Seattle allows 17.9 points a game, per ESPN, and its last two games had 31 and 23 total points. Chicago wants to run the ball, which shortens the game, and the Bears have been stingy after halftime. The last time these teams met, the final was 6-3. Chicago's last two games both went over this number, so this one is not a lock either.
Player prop: Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 97.5 receiving yards (about -113 at DraftKings, per the odds site StatSniper). He has gone over 100 yards in six of seven games, with 134 at Denver and 150 against Kansas City in his last two, per StatSniper's game log, and Shaheed being out should funnel even more targets his way. The caution flag: he had only 32 yards against Chicago in that 6-3 game in 2024. FanDuel lists him at 99.5 and BetMGM at 100.5, so shop around.
Season record
Combined season record: 7-11-0 (W-L-P)
Monday Night Line: 3-6-0
Thursday Night Line: 4-5-0
Sources
ESPN game page: DraftKings odds, injuries, team leaders, Matchup Predictor, forecast and the AP preview
NFL.com: official Week 8 injury report
Seahawks.com: Saturday injury report for both teams
ESPN: Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price have no game designations
Chicago Bears: game preview, Simmons debut, Sweat and Edwards return
Bears Wire: Jeffery Simmons expected to play
StatSniper: Jaxon Smith-Njigba receiving yards lines by sportsbook and game log
ESPN box score, Panthers at Packers: Thursday final and Chuba Hubbard rushing line
Cover photo: Lumen Field north side at dusk, by SounderBruce, via Wikimedia Commons, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0. Cropped.
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Disclaimer
This column is for entertainment and information only and is not financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and you could lose money. Any bet you place is at your own risk. Bet only what you can afford to lose, and only where it's legal for you; in Oregon, you must be 21 or older. If gambling stops being fun, help is free and confidential: call 1-877-MY-LIMIT (1-877-695-4648) or visit OPGR.org.
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