Market pulse: Ohio State's title odds crash after USC upset, days before Oregon visits Columbus (Nov. 1)
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Kalshi traders now give Ohio State about a 4% chance to win the national title, down from about 13% before Saturday's 30-18 loss at USC.
The Buckeyes' chances of making the College Football Playoff fell from about 81% to about 54%, and Jeremiah Smith lost his spot as the Heisman favorite.
Oregon, 5-3 after beating No. 20 Northwestern, plays at Ohio State on Saturday, Nov. 7, and traders price the Ducks at about 25% to 26% to win.
Oregon State's odds of winning the Pac-12 fell from about 38% to about 21% after a 38-22 loss at Fresno State.
Ohio State went into Halloween night as the No. 2 team in the country and one of the betting crowd's favorites for the national title. It came out of the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum with a 30-18 loss to USC and a much smaller price tag on prediction markets.
As of about 10 a.m. Pacific on Sunday, Kalshi's national championship market priced Ohio State at about 4 cents on the dollar, which works out to roughly a 4% chance in traders' eyes. A day earlier, before kickoff, it sat near 13 cents. About 146,000 Ohio State title contracts changed hands in the past day, one of the busiest outcomes in the whole market.
The Buckeyes slid on every related board. Kalshi traders cut their chances of making the playoff from about 81% to about 54%, and their chances of reaching the title game from about 31% to about 11%. Georgia, at about 22%, and Miami, at about 17%, are now the market's top two title picks.
Polymarket, a second prediction market, tells the same story. Its 2027 national championship market had Ohio State at about 6.5% on Sunday morning, down 8 points in a day.
This is a market, not a forecast
Prediction-market prices show what traders are willing to pay right now. They are not a prediction from Willamette News, and they can swing hard after a single game. Ohio State still has a month of regular season left, starting with Oregon. Treat the numbers as the crowd's current read, nothing more.
What happened in Los Angeles
USC scored on the first drive, a 69-yard pass from Jayden Maiava to freshman Trent Mosley, and never trailed. The Trojans led 20-9 at halftime and 27-9 after recovering a fumble to open the second half, according to Ohio State's game recap. The Buckeyes piled up 464 yards but settled for four field goals before a late touchdown. The Washington Post called it the biggest win of coach Lincoln Riley's tenure at USC.
Freshman quarterback Luke Fahey, making his first career start, threw for 260 yards and a touchdown. Bo Jackson ran for 121 yards.
A Heisman shake-up
Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith caught 10 passes for 83 yards and a touchdown, his 40th career TD catch, which broke Braylon Edwards' Big Ten record. But much of that came late, with Ohio State down three scores, CBS Sports noted.
Traders noticed. On Kalshi's Heisman market, Smith fell from about 42% to about 23%, while Miami quarterback Darian Mensah rose from about 23% to about 36% and took over as the favorite. Miami's Malachi Toney held near 17%. Polymarket's Heisman market moved nearly the same way, with Mensah at about 33.5% and Smith at about 21.5%.
Why Oregon fans should care
The Ducks are next on Ohio State's schedule. Oregon visits Columbus on Saturday, Nov. 7, with kickoff at 12:30 p.m. Pacific.
Oregon (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten) comes in off a 34-26 comeback win over No. 20 Northwestern at Autzen Stadium. Dylan Raiola, starting with Dante Moore out for the season, threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns, the AP reported, and freshman running back Brandon Smith scored the go-ahead touchdown on fourth down, per Oregon's recap.
Kalshi's game market has Oregon at about 25 to 26 cents to win in Columbus. Ohio State's side dipped from about 82 cents to about 75 cents after the USC loss. Oregon's own playoff odds on Kalshi sit in the single digits.
Beavers slip in the Pac-12 race
Closer to home, Oregon State's five-game winning streak ended with a 38-22 loss at Fresno State on Saturday night, Oregon State Athletics reported. Braden Atkinson threw for 373 yards, his eighth straight 300-yard game, a school record.
On Kalshi's Pac-12 title market, the Beavers fell from about 38% to about 21%. Boise State, at about 54%, remains the favorite. Oregon State (5-3, 3-1 Pac-12) hosts Texas State at Reser Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 7, at 7:30 p.m. on The CW.
Sources: Kalshi college football championship market, Kalshi playoff market, Kalshi Heisman market, Polymarket national champion market, Ohio State Athletics, The Washington Post, CBS Sports, University of Oregon Athletics, AP, Oregon State Athletics. Market prices were checked about 10 a.m. PT on Nov. 1, 2026, and will have changed since. Cover photo: Pi.1415926535 / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0.
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For information only, not betting or investment advice. Prediction markets reflect trader prices, not certainties. Willamette News has no financial relationship with Kalshi or Polymarket.
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