Thursday Night Line: Panthers at Packers, lines and leans for TNF (Oct. 29)
Quick Read
The Carolina Panthers (3-3) visit the Green Bay Packers (4-3) on Thursday Night Football at 5:15 p.m. PT on Prime Video, the only game Thursday.
DraftKings has Green Bay favored by 3.5 with a total of 46.5, down from a Packers -7 opener on ESPN's DraftKings feed.
Our leans: Panthers +3.5, Under 46.5 and Chuba Hubbard over 67.5 rushing yards.
Monday's picks went 0-3, so the combined Night Line record is 5-10-0 and the Thursday Night Line is 2-4-0.
Thursday Night Line | Betting analysis
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The matchup
Week 8 opens tonight at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin, where the Packers (4-3) host the Carolina Panthers (3-3) at 5:15 p.m. PT on Prime Video. It is the only Thursday night game on the schedule, and both teams are coming off losses. Carolina leads the NFC South despite its .500 record, while Green Bay sits last in a crowded NFC North.
The Packers lost 20-17 at Detroit on Sunday in a game that included seven second-half penalties against them, and the Panthers were blown out 43-13 at home by Tampa Bay, the Associated Press reported. Running back Josh Jacobs made his season debut against the Lions after spending Green Bay's first six games on the commissioner's exempt list. Carolina won the last meeting 16-13 at Lambeau Field on Nov. 2, 2025, and Green Bay leads the series 12-7.
Last week grading
Monday Night Line (Cowboys at Eagles, final Cowboys 38, Eagles 21): Eagles +4.5 lost, Under 43.5 lost (59 points), CeeDee Lamb over 81.5 receiving yards lost (five catches, 74 yards and two touchdowns, per the NFL game book). Monday Night Line is 3-6-0. Nothing else was left to grade, so the Thursday Night Line stays at 2-4-0.
The lines
Odds from DraftKings via ESPN, checked at about 10:20 a.m. PT Thursday, Oct. 29:
Spread: Packers -3.5 (-112), Panthers +3.5 (-108)
Total: 46.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
Moneyline: Packers -192, Panthers +160
The market has moved toward Carolina on the side and toward points on the total. ESPN's DraftKings feed shows Green Bay opening as a 7-point favorite at -325 on the moneyline with a total of 45.5, so the spread has dropped 3.5 points even after the Panthers' blowout loss, and the Over now carries the heavier price. Some books show the total at 47.5 and a few have the Packers at -4. Lines move, so check your own book before kickoff.
Three key factors
Injuries. Green Bay has ruled out center Sean Rhyan (ankle), right guard Travis Glover (knee) and linebacker Zaire Franklin (shin), per the official injury report on Packers.com and ESPN. Receiver Matthew Golden (shoulder, foot), defensive tackles Devonte Wyatt (ankle) and Anthony Campbell (ankle) and edge rusher Brenton Cox Jr. (quadricep) are questionable, and Golden's status may not be known until inactives. Guard Aaron Banks and cornerback Benjamin St-Juste carry no game status. Carolina has ruled out outside linebacker Jaelan Phillips (hamstring), left guard Damien Lewis (knee), guard Torricelli Simpkins III (ankle) and cornerback Akayleb Evans (triceps, knee), and right tackle Taylor Moton went on injured reserve Monday. Defensive tackle Bobby Brown III (hand) is questionable, while quarterback Bryce Young (knee), receiver Jalen Coker (shoulder) and kicker Ryan Fitzgerald (illness) carry no game status and will play. Watch the final inactive list about 90 minutes before kickoff.
Matchups. This game pits each team's biggest weakness against the other. Green Bay runs for an NFL-low 59.9 yards a game and has not topped 86 rushing yards in any game, while Carolina allows a league-high 153.2 rushing yards a game and gave up 258 to Tampa Bay on Sunday, the AP reported. The Packers will start a reshuffled interior line after using a different starting combination in each of their first four games. Carolina's offense ranks fifth in scoring at 26.5 points a game, Young is second in the league at 285.3 passing yards a game and has a touchdown pass in eight straight games, and Chuba Hubbard leads the Panthers with 459 rushing yards. On the other side, Jordan Love leads the league with 30 completions of 20 or more yards, and Christian Watson has six touchdown catches, per the AP and ESPN.
Trends. Carolina is 3-3 against the spread this season and Green Bay is 3-3-1, per the AP. Yahoo Sports notes Young is 12-0 against the spread in his career when coming off a loss. Both teams are among the most penalized in the league, with Carolina at 79.2 penalty yards a game and Green Bay at 78 and a league-high 9.3 penalties a game. Packers kicker Trey Smack missed from 26 and 35 yards in Detroit. The forecast at Lambeau Field, via ESPN, calls for about 53 degrees with gusts near 9 mph and a small chance of rain.
Our leans
These are leans, not locks. We went 0-3 on Monday, so take them for what they are.
Spread: Panthers +3.5 (-108). The hook matters in a game the market has already pulled in from 7, and Green Bay will be without two starting interior linemen for an offense that already can't run. Young has been one of the most reliable bounce-back quarterbacks in the league against the spread, and Carolina's 43-13 loss came with a pile of turnovers rather than a lack of offense. The risk is a Panthers line missing two guards and its right tackle against a Packers defense that generates plenty of pressure.
Total: Under 46.5 (+100). Both offensive lines are banged up, Green Bay's offense has stalled inside the opponent's 35-yard line, and its kicker had a rough Sunday. The last meeting finished 16-13, and short-week Thursday games often take a while to find a rhythm. The Under is also getting plus money after the total ticked up from 45.5. If your book is at 47.5, the value improves.
Player prop: Chuba Hubbard over 67.5 rushing yards (about -110 at DraftKings, per the odds comparison site LineTerminal). Hubbard is averaging 76.5 rushing yards a game and ran for 120 or more in two straight games before Tampa Bay's early lead limited him to seven carries for 33 yards. Fantasy Life ranks Green Bay's run defense in the bottom three in rush success rate, and leaning on Hubbard is the easiest way for Carolina to protect a reshuffled offensive line. FanDuel and BetMGM list him at 66.5, so shop around.
Season record
Combined season record: 5-10-0 (W-L-P)
Thursday Night Line: 2-4-0
Monday Night Line: 3-6-0
Sources
ESPN game page: DraftKings odds, injuries, team leaders, forecast and the AP preview
Packers.com: official Week 8 injury report for both teams
Packers Wire: Packers injury breakdown and Taylor Moton IR note
Yahoo Sports: Bryce Young against-the-spread trend
Fantasy Life: Packers run defense and line movement
LineTerminal: Chuba Hubbard rushing yards prop prices
Cover photo: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin, by Chad Davis, via Wikimedia Commons, licensed CC BY 2.0. Cropped.
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Disclaimer
This column is for entertainment and information only and is not financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and you could lose money. Any bet you place is at your own risk. Bet only what you can afford to lose, and only where it's legal for you; in Oregon, you must be 21 or older. If gambling stops being fun, help is free and confidential: call 1-877-MY-LIMIT (1-877-695-4648) or visit OPGR.org.
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