Thursday Night Line: Patriots at Bears, lines and leans for TNF (Oct. 22)
Thursday Night Line | Betting analysis
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The matchup
Week 7 opens tonight at Soldier Field in Chicago, where the Bears (4-2) host the New England Patriots (4-2) at 5:15 p.m. PT on Prime Video. It is the only Thursday night game on the schedule, and it puts the top two quarterbacks from the 2024 draft, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, on the same field.
New England has won three straight, most recently 26-19 over the Jets, and Maye has thrown 10 touchdown passes with one interception during the streak, per the Associated Press. Chicago beat Atlanta 31-23 on Sunday as Williams went 30 for 36 for 305 yards in his return from a hamstring injury that cost him three games. The Patriots are 3-0 at home but 1-2 on the road. The last meeting was a 19-3 Patriots win at Soldier Field in November 2024.
Last week grading
Monday Night Line (Commanders at 49ers, final 49ers 23, Commanders 17): 49ers -7.5 lost, Over 52.5 lost, Jayden Daniels over 37.5 rushing yards lost. Monday Night Line is 3-3-0. Nothing else was left to grade, so the Thursday Night Line stays at 1-2-0.
The lines
Odds from DraftKings via ESPN, checked at about 10:20 a.m. PT Thursday, Oct. 22:
Spread: Bears -3 (-102), Patriots +3 (-118)
Total: 50.5 (Over -118, Under -102)
Moneyline: Bears -155, Patriots +130
The market has moved toward Chicago and toward points. DraftKings opened the Bears at -1.5 with a total of 47.5, so the spread has climbed to the key number of 3 and the total is up three points. The extra juice on Patriots +3 suggests some books may dip to 2.5 before kickoff. Lines move, so check your own book.
Three key factors
Injuries. New England has ruled out guard Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring), center Ben Brown (knee) and cornerbacks Carlton Davis III (neck), Channing Canada (hamstring) and Karon Prunty (hamstring), per the official injury report and NFL.com. Right tackle Morgan Moses (foot), safeties Kevin Byard and Craig Woodson, and linebacker Christian Elliss are questionable. Receiver A.J. Brown (ankle) practiced fully Wednesday and carries no game status. Chicago has ruled out running back Kyle Monangai (thumb, toe) and linebacker Jack Sanborn (concussion), linebacker T.J. Edwards (hamstring) is doubtful, and cornerback Tyrique Stevenson (hip) is questionable. Watch the final inactive list about 90 minutes before kickoff.
Matchups. Chicago leads the NFL at 160.7 rushing yards a game, but without Monangai the Bears have managed only 3.0 and 3.6 yards per carry the past two weeks, according to Covers. New England allows just 91.8 rushing yards and 18.8 points a game, per ESPN. On the other side, the Patriots will be without two interior offensive linemen, though the Bears are thin at linebacker with Sanborn out and Edwards doubtful. Maye has been far better at home, averaging 272.3 passing yards in Foxborough and 215.3 on the road, per FanDuel Research.
Trends. New England is 3-1-2 against the spread this season and Chicago is 4-2, per the Associated Press. Both defenses allow fewer than 20 points a game, with Chicago at 19.8 and New England at 18.8. The forecast at Soldier Field, via ESPN, calls for about 61 degrees with gusts near 7 mph and no rain, which is about as friendly as late October gets on the lakefront.
Our leans
These are leans, not locks.
Spread: Patriots +3. New England has lost against the spread only once this season, and Maye is playing his best football of the year. The Bears' running game has stalled without Monangai, and getting a full three points with a team riding a three-game winning streak is worth a look. If your book has moved to 2.5, the value shrinks.
Total: Under 50.5. The number has climbed three points since the open, but both teams allow fewer than 20 points a game, Chicago's ground game has slowed, and Maye's passing numbers have dropped on the road. Short-week Thursday games often take a while to find a rhythm.
Player prop: Luther Burden III over 56.5 receiving yards (about -111 at DraftKings, per Sports Illustrated). He leads Chicago with 31 catches for 361 yards and caught all eight of his targets for 95 yards in Williams' return last week. If Christian Gonzalez shadows Rome Odunze, Burden should see plenty of looks. Some books list him at 55.5, so shop around.
Season record
Combined season record: 4-5-0 (W-L-P)
Thursday Night Line: 1-2-0
Monday Night Line: 3-3-0
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Disclaimer
This column is for entertainment and information only and is not financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and you could lose money. Any bet you place is at your own risk. Bet only what you can afford to lose, and only where it's legal for you; in Oregon, you must be 21 or older. If gambling stops being fun, help is free and confidential: call 1-877-MY-LIMIT (1-877-695-4648) or visit OPGR.org.
Cover photo: Soldier Field, Chicago, by Ken Lund, via Wikimedia Commons, licensed CC BY-SA 2.0.
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