Thursday Night Line: Seahawks at Broncos, lines and leans for TNF

Thursday Night Line | Betting analysis

For entertainment and information only. Bet responsibly, 21+ in Oregon.

The matchup

Week 6 opens tonight at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, where the Broncos (3-2) host the Seattle Seahawks (3-2) at 5:15 p.m. PT on Prime Video. It is the only Thursday night game on the schedule, and both teams sit second in their divisions after 3-2 starts.

Seattle is coming off a 32-29 home loss to San Francisco and needs a road win to stay within striking distance in the NFC West. Denver just beat the Chargers 23-17 on the road and is 2-0 at home. A short week, altitude, and a chance of light rain all figure into a low total that has slid all week.

Last week grading

Monday Night Line (Bills at Rams, final Bills 37, Rams 34 in OT): Bills +3.5 won, Over 54.5 won, Josh Allen anytime touchdown won. Monday Night Line is 3-0-0. No prior Thursday Night Line picks to grade.

The lines

Odds from consensus books (USA TODAY Sports / Betwatch), checked at about 10:25 a.m. PT Thursday, Oct. 15:

Spread: Seahawks -2.5 (-110), Broncos +2.5 (-110)

Total: 40.5 (Over -110, Under -105 to -110)

Moneyline: Seahawks -145, Broncos +125

The opener was roughly Seahawks -1.5 with a total near 43. The spread has settled at a key half-number of 2.5, and the total has dropped about two and a half points. Lines move, so check your own book before kickoff.

Three key factors

Injuries. Denver has ruled out cornerback Patrick Surtain II and safety Talanoa Hufanga (both ankle), per the official Week 6 injury report and ESPN. Cornerback Riley Moss (ribs) is questionable. Seattle has ruled out running back Zach Charbonnet and linebackers Chazz Surratt and Drake Thomas, while receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba practiced fully Wednesday and is expected to play. Watch the final inactive list about 90 minutes before kickoff.

Matchups. Seattle leads the NFL in yards allowed per play, and opposing quarterbacks have stayed under 200 passing yards against the Seahawks all season, according to Covers analysis. Bo Nix has failed to reach 190 passing yards in three of five games. On the other side, Denver's secondary is missing its top corner and a starting safety, which puts more pressure on whoever covers Smith-Njigba, who already has seven receiving touchdowns.

Trends. Seattle is 9-2 against the spread on the road since the start of last season, per Covers. Denver is 1-4 ATS on Thursdays under Sean Payton. Kickoff weather is expected around 52 degrees with winds near 10 mph and a chance of light rain, which helps explain why the total has dropped into the low 40s.

Our leans

These are leans, not locks.

Spread: Seahawks -2.5. Seattle's defense against a struggling Denver passing game, plus Surtain and Hufanga both out, makes laying less than a field goal on the road worth a look.

Total: Under 40.5. The number has fallen hard from the opener near 43, Thursday night games often stay tight, and Seattle's defense has been stingy through five weeks.

Player prop: Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime touchdown (shop books; prices move). He leads Seattle with seven receiving scores and faces a Broncos secondary missing its best corner and a starting safety.

Season record

Combined season record: 3-0-0 (W-L-P)

Thursday Night Line: 0-0-0 (first column)

Monday Night Line: 3-0-0

Disclaimer

This column is for entertainment and information only and is not financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and you could lose money. Bet only what you can afford to lose, and only where it's legal for you; in Oregon, you must be 21 or older. If gambling stops being fun, help is free and confidential: call 1-877-MY-LIMIT (1-877-695-4648) or visit OPGR.org.

Cover photo: Empower Field at Mile High exterior, by Troutfarm27, via Wikimedia Commons, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0.