Monday Night Line: Commanders at 49ers, lines and leans for MNF

Monday Night Line | Betting analysis

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The matchup

Week 6 closes Monday night at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, where the undefeated San Francisco 49ers (5-0) host the Washington Commanders (1-3-1) at 5:15 p.m. PT on ESPN and ABC. It is the only Monday night game on the schedule.

San Francisco is 3-0 at home and coming off a 32-29 win in Seattle, and a win would put the 49ers three games clear of second-place Seattle (3-3) in the NFC West. Washington is 0-2 on the road and still stinging from a 27-27 tie with the Giants that slipped away on overtime clock mistakes. Jayden Daniels looked healthy in his return from an elbow injury that day, running nine times for 103 yards and two touchdowns.

Last week grading

Thursday Night Line (Seahawks at Broncos, final Broncos 17, Seahawks 14 in OT): Seahawks -2.5 lost, Under 40.5 won, Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime touchdown lost. Thursday Night Line is 1-2-0. Nothing else was left to grade, so the Monday Night Line stays at 3-0-0.

The lines

Odds from DraftKings via ESPN, checked at about 7:50 p.m. PT Sunday, Oct. 18:

Spread: 49ers -7.5 (-110), Commanders +7.5 (-110)

Total: 52.5 (Over -105, Under -115)

Moneyline: 49ers -455, Commanders +350

The market has moved hard toward San Francisco. DraftKings opened the 49ers at -5.5 with a total of 50.5, so the spread has jumped past the key number of 7 and the total has climbed two points. Lines move, so check your own book before kickoff.

Three key factors

Injuries. San Francisco has ruled out defensive end Nick Bosa (knee, calf), receiver Deebo Samuel (hamstring), linebacker Garret Wallow (hamstring) and safety Marques Sigle (ankle), per the official injury report and ESPN. Receiver Mike Evans (ribs, Achilles) did not practice all week and is questionable, along with receiver Christian Kirk, cornerback Upton Stout and defensive lineman Mykel Williams. Washington has ruled out running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt (groin), edge rushers Charles Omenihu and Javontae Jean-Baptiste, and backup quarterback Marcus Mariota. Receiver Stefon Diggs (hamstring) and safeties Percy Butler, Tyler Owens and Nick Cross are questionable. Daniels practiced fully all week. Watch the final inactive list about 90 minutes before kickoff.

Matchups. San Francisco is averaging about 31 points a game, and Brock Purdy has thrown for 1,196 yards with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions. Sports Illustrated's betting analysis ranks the 49ers second in the league in EPA per play and first in success rate. Washington's defense has allowed about 30 points a game, and it will be without two edge rushers and possibly three safeties. The best case for the Commanders is Daniels' legs against a 49ers front playing without Bosa.

Trends. San Francisco is 4-1 against the spread this season and Washington is 2-3, per Sports Illustrated. The Over has hit in four of Washington's five games and three of San Francisco's five, though the Under is 6-3 in the last nine meetings between these teams. The forecast at Levi's Stadium, via ESPN, calls for about 66 degrees with gusts near 18 mph and no rain.

Our leans

These are leans, not locks.

Spread: 49ers -7.5. Laying more than a touchdown is never comfortable, and Bosa's absence is a real risk. Still, San Francisco has covered four of five, and Washington is crossing the country with a thin pass rush, a banged-up secondary and without its leading rusher.

Total: Over 52.5. The number has climbed, but the 49ers are scoring about 31 points a game, Washington is allowing about 30, the Over is 4-1 in Commanders games, and the weather should be dry and mild.

Player prop: Jayden Daniels over 37.5 rushing yards (about -113 at FanDuel, per Legion Report). With Croskey-Merritt out and Washington likely playing from behind, Daniels figures to run more, and he just put up 103 rushing yards against the Giants. Some books have this number as high as 39.5, so shop around.

Season record

Combined season record: 4-2-0 (W-L-P)

Monday Night Line: 3-0-0

Thursday Night Line: 1-2-0

Disclaimer

This column is for entertainment and information only and is not financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and you could lose money. Any bet you place is at your own risk. Bet only what you can afford to lose, and only where it's legal for you; in Oregon, you must be 21 or older. If gambling stops being fun, help is free and confidential: call 1-877-MY-LIMIT (1-877-695-4648) or visit OPGR.org.

Cover photo: Levi's Stadium interior, by Matthew Roth, via Wikimedia Commons, licensed CC BY-SA 2.0.