San Francisco declares local emergency to prepare for strong El Nino winter (Oct. 25)
This is a developing story. Updated Sunday afternoon PT, Oct. 25.
Quick Read
San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie declared a local emergency on Friday, Oct. 23, 2026, to speed city preparations for El Nino winter storms and coastal flooding.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has an El Nino Advisory in effect and says a strong-to-very strong event is likely through January-March 2027, with elevated odds of a historic-strength episode.
The declaration lets key city departments buy flood barriers, pumps, generators and shelter supplies faster as demand rises across California.
Past very strong El Nino winters have been linked to record West Coast beach erosion, flooding in Peru and drought and heat impacts in Australia.
SAN FRANCISCO - Mayor Daniel Lurie declared a local emergency on Friday, Oct. 23, as the city prepares for El Nino winter hazards, including severe storms and coastal flooding, according to a city news release. The move is meant to speed procurement and citywide coordination before winter weather arrives, city officials said.
"Today, I am declaring a local emergency to ensure San Francisco is ready for the severe storms, flooding, and high tides that El Nino could bring this winter," Lurie said in the release. "We are acting now to make sure our departments have the resources they need to protect San Franciscans quickly throughout the season."
The declaration temporarily streamlines contracting so departments including Public Works, the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, the Port, SFMTA, Recreation and Park, San Francisco International Airport and the Office of Contract Administration can secure goods and services more quickly, the city said. Officials pointed to rising demand for flood-protection materials across California.
Departments can use the faster process to buy flood barriers, pumps and generators, and to stock first-aid and shelter supplies and portable restrooms, according to SF.gov. The order also organizes city government under the Incident Command System, directs departments to cooperate with the Emergency Operations Center, and allows the mayor to reallocate funds between departments as needed.
KQED and CBS Bay Area also reported the declaration. KQED said the announcement came with backing from local emergency personnel and allows Lurie to reallocate funds within and between departments for the emergency.
What a "super" El Nino is
El Nino is a recurring Pacific Ocean pattern in which sea surface temperatures become unusually warm across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, shifting rainfall and storm tracks for months at a time. It is not itself a single storm. The National Weather Service notes on San Francisco's severe-storms page that even a very strong El Nino does not guarantee the same impacts everywhere or say when individual storms will hit.
Forecasters and researchers sometimes call the strongest episodes "super" or extreme El Ninos. Those are events with especially large warm anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific and a major reorganization of tropical rainfall, according to CSIRO, Australia's national science agency. Classic examples cited in that research include the extreme events of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, in its Oct. 8, 2026, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, said an El Nino Advisory is in effect and that El Nino continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong event likely through January-March 2027 (greater than an 83% chance). The agency said chances remain high for a historic-strength event that would exceed previous El Nino events dating back to 1950, measured as a three-month Relative Oceanic Nino Index of +2.5 degrees Celsius or more. Those odds were listed at 83% for October-December and 70% for November-January.
Sea surface temperature anomalies in portions of the eastern equatorial Pacific exceeded +4.0 degrees Celsius last month, and the Nino-3.4 index reached +2.1 degrees Celsius, NOAA reported. The city of San Francisco, citing National Weather Service guidance, said the Oct. 15 outlook favors wetter-than-normal conditions in Northern California for December 2026 through February 2027, and that coastal flooding is expected this winter even without rain because warmer seawater and El Nino-related ocean waves can raise coastal water levels during high tides.
How San Francisco is preparing
The Department of Emergency Management is leading citywide coordination and has established an incident coordination group with public safety, infrastructure, and health and human services agencies, according to SF.gov. Working groups are reviewing forecasts, mitigation and response plans, with attention to coastal flooding and power outages.
Mary Ellen Carroll, DEM executive director, said conditions can change quickly and that one storm or severe coastal flooding event can cause serious impacts. "That's why we are bringing departments together to work through protocols, identify resource needs, and prepare to scale up the city's response," she said in the city release. "This declaration accelerates that work and prevents procedural roadblocks from inhibiting our readiness."
Among the department steps listed by the city: the Port is preparing high-risk waterfront areas for temporary flood barriers and stormwater pumping; Public Works has more than 20,000 sandbags ready and is preparing for fallen trees, drainage problems and road repairs; SFMTA is protecting transit equipment and planning service adjustments; Recreation and Park will keep tree and heavy-equipment crews on standby from November through mid-April; and the Department of Homelessness and Supportive Housing plans surge shelter beds and emergency pop-up shelters when severe weather hits.
Residents are being urged to sign up for AlertSF, clear drains when safe, get sandbags if their property floods, and ask about flood insurance now because National Flood Insurance Program policies typically have a 30-day waiting period, the city said. A free business preparedness webinar is scheduled for Nov. 4.
Examples attributed to past strong El Ninos
Very strong El Nino winters have left a long record of documented impacts. Scientists and weather agencies have attributed the following examples to strong or "super" El Nino events, especially 2015-16 and earlier extremes:
U.S. West Coast beaches: A USGS-supported study published in Nature Communications found that the 2015-16 El Nino produced winter wave energy that equaled or exceeded historical maxima across the U.S. West Coast. Averaged across six regions, shoreline retreat that winter was the highest on record: 76% above a normal winter and 27% higher than any other measured winter. Eleven of 18 surveyed California beaches retreated beyond previously measured landward extremes. USGS summarized the finding as severe West Coast erosion during that El Nino.
Peru and neighboring countries: Australia's Bureau of Meteorology, reviewing the end of the 2015-16 event, reported that Peru saw widespread flooding and mudslides in early 2016 that left more than 5,000 people homeless, with flooding and landslides also damaging property in Ecuador. The same BOM update said more than 150,000 people were evacuated from flooded areas in Paraguay, Uruguay, Brazil and Argentina in December 2015.
Australia: BOM linked the 2015-16 El Nino to Australia's third-driest spring on record and a record early heatwave in October that further reduced crop production in the Murray-Darling Basin. CSIRO notes that past extreme El Ninos have also been associated with severe droughts and wildfires in western Pacific regions, and with catastrophic floods in Ecuador and northern Peru.
U.S. interior flooding and marine shifts: BOM also reported above-normal rainfall in the southeast and south-central United States during that event, with major flooding along the Mississippi River and Missouri receiving three times its normal rainfall in November and December 2015. Warmer offshore waters brought unusual marine species, including sea snakes, red tuna crabs and hammerhead sharks, onto California beaches, BOM said.
Those historical impacts are not a forecast for every strong El Nino. NOAA stresses that even with a large event, local storm timing and severity are not guaranteed.
What it could mean for the Northwest
NOAA's Oct. 15, 2026, long-lead seasonal outlook says the seasonal forecasts for winter and spring are heavily influenced by the very strong El Nino. For November-January, the outlook favors above-normal temperatures for the western third of the contiguous United States, including Oregon. Precipitation odds are more mixed: wetter-than-normal conditions are favored for much of California and the Southwest, while below-normal precipitation is favored for parts of the Northern Rockies and High Plains. Equal chances apply in many areas where no strong tilt is forecast.
For the Willamette Valley, that means residents should watch National Weather Service forecasts through the winter rather than assume a single outcome. Strong El Nino winters can still bring individual heavy rainstorms, high winds, power outages and flood risk even when a season's totals end near normal.
Sources
City and County of San Francisco: Mayor Lurie Declares Local Emergency to Strengthen San Francisco's El Nino Preparedness (Oct. 23, 2026)
SF.gov: Severe storms / El Nino and the 2026-27 winter guidance
NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (Oct. 8, 2026)
NOAA Climate Prediction Center: Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks (Oct. 15, 2026)
KQED: San Francisco Declares Local Emergency in Preparation for Historic El Nino
CBS Bay Area: San Francisco mayor declares local emergency to prepare for El Nino storm effects
U.S. Geological Survey: Severe West Coast Erosion During 2015-16 El Nino
Nature Communications: Extreme oceanographic forcing and coastal response due to the 2015-2016 El Nino
Australian Bureau of Meteorology: El Nino is over, but has left its mark across the world
CSIRO: Why we won't have a super El Nino this year (background on extreme El Nino definition)
Cover photo: Signs of El Nino in 2026 (SVS5683), NASA Scientific Visualization Studio, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain
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