Market pulse: Traders slash Ohio State's playoff odds after Oregon's 41-28 win in Columbus (Nov. 7)
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Kalshi traders cut Ohio State's College Football Playoff odds from about 51% before Saturday to about 14% after Oregon's 41-28 win in Columbus, and lifted Oregon from about 10% to about 31%.
The Ducks scored 38 straight points after falling behind 14-0, Oregon Athletics said. Dylan Raiola threw for 257 yards and two touchdowns, and Dierre Hill Jr. ran for two scores.
Ohio State's national title price on Kalshi fell from about 5% to about 1%. On Polymarket, Oregon's title price rose to about 6%.
Jeremiah Smith's Heisman price was roughly cut in half, from about 40% to about 19%, on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
By the Willamette News Sports Desk. Edited by Channing Webb.
Oregon went into Ohio Stadium as a clear underdog and left with a 41-28 win. Prediction-market traders spent the evening repricing both teams' playoff chances, and the move was sharp.
What moved
On Kalshi's playoff market, Ohio State was about 51 cents on the dollar before Saturday, still around 54 cents while the game was going on this afternoon. By Saturday evening it was trading at about 14 cents. Oregon went the other way, from about 10 cents before the game to a last price of about 31 cents, with bids and offers between 24 and 31 cents.
The same crowd had priced Oregon around 28 cents to win the game itself before kickoff, against about 73 cents for Ohio State. That game market has now settled in Oregon's favor, Kalshi's result page shows.
National title prices moved too, though both teams remain long shots. On Kalshi's championship market, Ohio State fell from about 5% to about 1% on roughly 146,000 contracts in the past day. Oregon ticked up from about 1% to about 2%, on even heavier volume.
Polymarket's matching boards tell the same directional story, with different levels. Its 2026-27 playoff market had Ohio State around 28% Saturday night, down about 35 points on the day, and Oregon around 24%, up about 16 points. On Polymarket's national championship market, Ohio State was about 2% and Oregon about 6%.
The two markets disagree on which team now has the better playoff shot. They agree on the bigger point: traders treated Oregon's win in Columbus as a real blow to Ohio State's path and a real lift for the Ducks.
This is a market, not a forecast
These prices show what traders are willing to pay right now. They are not a prediction from Willamette News, and they can swing again next week. Oregon is 6-3. Ohio State is 6-3 after a second straight loss, its first back-to-back losses since 2011, according to the Associated Press recap carried by ESPN. Treat the numbers as the crowd's current read, nothing more.
What happened in Columbus
Ohio State led 14-0 after two Bo Jackson touchdown runs, then Oregon scored 38 unanswered points, Oregon Athletics reported. Hill's 9-yard run made it 14-10, and tight end Jamari Johnson scored from 2 yards out on the last play of the first half after a fake punt helped set up the drive. Hill's 48-yard run on the opening series of the third quarter made it 24-14. Raiola, starting with Dante Moore out for the season after a concussion at Southern California, finished 25 of 40 for 257 yards and threw second-half touchdowns of 11 yards to Dakorien Moore and 15 yards to Brandon Smith, per Oregon's recap, the official box score, and the AP recap on ESPN.
Ohio State Athletics called it a home loss. Luke Fahey completed 36 of 50 passes for 360 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in his second start, but much of that came after the game had gotten away, the AP recap said. Jeremiah Smith had 7 catches for 133 yards and a touchdown. Attendance was 103,551, according to both schools' box scores.
A Heisman shake-up
Smith's production was not enough to hold his place on the Heisman board after a second straight Ohio State loss. On Kalshi's Heisman market, he fell from about 40% to about 19%, with about 125,000 contracts traded in 24 hours. Polymarket's Heisman market showed almost the same drop, to about 19.5%.
Sources: Kalshi playoff market, Kalshi college football championship market, Kalshi Heisman market, Kalshi Oregon-Ohio State game market, Polymarket playoff market, Polymarket national champion market, Polymarket Heisman market, University of Oregon Athletics, Ohio State Athletics, Oregon box score, Ohio State box score, ESPN / Associated Press. Kalshi and Polymarket prices as of about 7:35 p.m. PT on Nov. 7, 2026; prior Kalshi prices are the previous-day marks, and this afternoon's playoff prices were checked against an earlier scan while the game was still going. Cover photo: Pi.1415926535 / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0.
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For information only, not betting or investment advice. Prediction markets reflect trader prices, not certainties. Willamette News has no financial relationship with Kalshi or Polymarket.
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