Monday Night Line: Bills at Vikings, lines and leans for MNF (Nov. 8)
Quick Read
The Buffalo Bills (6-1) visit the Minnesota Vikings (6-1) on Monday Night Football at 5:15 p.m. PT on ESPN and ABC, the only game Monday.
DraftKings has Buffalo favored by 3 with a total of 43.5, down from a 48.5 opener, and Minnesota has ruled out quarterback Kyler Murray.
Our leans: Vikings +3, Under 43.5 and James Cook over 84.5 rushing yards.
Last Thursday's picks went 2-1, so the combined Night Line record is 11-13-0 and the Monday Night Line is 5-7-0.
By Willamette News Sports Desk
Monday Night Line | Betting analysis
For entertainment and information only. Bet responsibly, 21+ in Oregon.
The matchup
Week 9 closes Monday night at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, where two 6-1 teams meet at 5:15 p.m. PT on ESPN and ABC. It is the only Monday night game on the schedule, and it pits the NFL's highest-scoring offense against its hardest defense to score on.
Buffalo leads the league at 33.3 points a game, per ESPN's team statistics, and has scored on 43 of 70 drives that did not end in a kneel-down, the Associated Press reported. The Bills have hit 30 points in three straight games, most recently a 36-10 win over Baltimore, and their only loss was 29-26 to New England. Minnesota allows 13.3 points a game, the fewest in the NFL, and won its first six before a 19-15 loss at Detroit last week. Under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, the Vikings have sent at least one extra pass rusher on nearly three-quarters of opponents' drop-backs, a league-record rate since tracking began a decade ago, according to the AP. The Vikings won the last meeting 33-30 in overtime on Nov. 13, 2022, in Buffalo, and lead the series 9-6.
Last week grading
Thursday Night Line (Jaguars at Ravens, final Jaguars 33, Ravens 10): Jaguars -10 won (Jacksonville won by 23), Under 39.5 lost (43 points), Derrick Henry under 68.5 rushing yards won (17 carries for 57 yards, per the ESPN box score). Thursday Night Line is 6-6-0. Last Monday's Bears at Seahawks picks were already graded at 2-1, so the Monday Night Line stays at 5-7-0.
The lines
Odds from DraftKings via ESPN, checked at about 7:54 p.m. PT Sunday, Nov. 8:
Spread: Bills -3 (-120), Vikings +3 (+100)
Total: 43.5 (Over -118, Under -102)
Moneyline: Bills -170, Vikings +142
The spread has not moved off 3, but the price has. DraftKings opened Buffalo at -3 (-105) and the Bills at -155 on the moneyline, so money has come in on the favorite. The bigger move is the total, which opened at 48.5 and has dropped 5 points. Minnesota announced Thursday that Murray would sit. Lines move, so check your own book before kickoff.
Three key factors
Injuries. Minnesota has ruled out quarterback Kyler Murray (hamstring), running back Demond Claiborne (knee) and receiver Jauan Jennings (calf), per the Vikings' final injury report, and Carson Wentz will start, the AP reported. Safeties Theo Jackson (quad) and Jay Ward (knee) are questionable. Tackle Christian Darrisaw, linebacker Jake Golday, cornerback Isaiah Rodgers and edge rusher Andrew Van Ginkel have no game designation and are expected to play, according to Vikings.com. Buffalo has ruled out receiver Joshua Palmer (hamstring). Left tackle Dion Dawkins (ribs), who did not practice all week, and left guard Alec Anderson (ankle), who was limited Saturday, are questionable, along with defensive lineman Greg Gaines (calf), per the Bills' report. Defensive back Jordan Hancock and receiver Tyrell Shavers are also listed as questionable but would need to be activated from injured reserve. The Bills said Tylan Grable would likely start if Dawkins cannot go and Austin Corbett would step in for Anderson. Receivers DJ Moore and Keon Coleman and tight end Dalton Kincaid have no designation. Watch the final inactive list about 90 minutes before kickoff.
Matchups. The headline matchup is Minnesota's pass rush against Buffalo's banged-up left side. The Vikings have 25 sacks, second in the NFL, per ESPN, and Van Ginkel had 2.5 of them at Detroit. Josh Allen has thrown for 1,793 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions, per ESPN, and his nine rushing touchdowns were second in the league entering the week, the AP noted. James Cook is fifth in the NFL with 707 rushing yards, and Allen and Cook have scored rushing touchdowns in the same game 16 times, the most in NFL history, per the AP. On the other side, Minnesota ranks 27th in scoring at 20.0 points a game and 29th in total offense, per ESPN, and now turns to Wentz without Jennings. Justin Jefferson has only 335 receiving yards, on pace for a career low, and tight end T.J. Hockenson leads the team with 31 catches, the AP reported. Buffalo's defense allows 25.9 points a game and had given up 29 or more in five of six games before holding Baltimore to 10, per the AP. Greg Rousseau leads the Bills with seven sacks.
Trends. Buffalo is 5-2 against the spread and Minnesota is 4-3, per the AP. The Bills are 3-0 on the road and the Vikings are 3-0 at home, per ESPN. Every one of Minnesota's last five games finished with 39 or fewer total points, and each was decided by 10 points or less. Four of Buffalo's last five went over 43.5. Minnesota is plus-7 in turnover margin, tied for second in the league, while Buffalo is minus-2, per ESPN. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives Buffalo a 67.6% chance to win. The game is indoors, so weather is not a factor.
Our leans
These are leans, not locks. We went 2-1 on Thursday, but the Monday Night Line is 5-7-0, so take them for what they are.
Spread: Vikings +3 (+100). Minnesota is unbeaten at home, has the league's stingiest scoring defense and wins the turnover battle, and its last five games were all one-score or 10-point games. The pressure the Vikings bring is a real problem for a Bills offensive line that may be missing its left tackle, its left guard or both. Getting the full field goal at even money is the appeal. The risk is obvious: Wentz is a backup on an offense that already ranked near the bottom of the league, and the market has been moving toward Buffalo all week.
Total: Under 43.5 (-102). Minnesota's games have averaged about 33 total points this season, based on ESPN's points for and against, and none of its last five topped 39. A backup quarterback, a team that wants to shorten the game and a defense built to force punts all point low. The caution flag: the total has already dropped 5 points, Buffalo's games have averaged about 59 points, and four of the Bills' last five went over this number.
Player prop: James Cook over 84.5 rushing yards (about -110 at DraftKings, per the prop tracker Nuvela). Cook has cleared 84.5 in four of seven games, with 135, 154, 111 and 95 yards, per his NFL.com game log, and he has had at least 21 carries in each of his last three games. With Palmer out and Minnesota blitzing on most passing downs, we expect Buffalo to lean on the run. The AP flagged Cook against the Vikings' front as the matchup to watch, noting Minnesota missed a bunch of tackles on Jahmyr Gibbs late in the Detroit game. The risk: Cook ran for 80 yards last week, the questionable linemen are blockers he relies on, and the line has climbed from 78.5 earlier in the week. FanDuel has him at 82.5, so shop around.
Season record
Combined season record: 11-13-0 (W-L-P)
Monday Night Line: 5-7-0
Thursday Night Line: 6-6-0
Sources
ESPN game page: DraftKings odds and openers, injuries, team leaders, Matchup Predictor and the AP preview
Minnesota Vikings: final Week 9 injury report for both teams
Buffalo Bills: Week 9 injury report and lineup replacements
ESPN team statistics: scoring, yardage, sacks and turnover margin
NFL.com: James Cook 2026 game log
Nuvela: James Cook rushing yards lines by sportsbook and line movement
ESPN box score, Jaguars at Ravens: Thursday final and Derrick Henry rushing line
Cover photo: U.S. Bank Stadium, by August Schwerdfeger, via Wikimedia Commons, licensed CC BY 4.0. Cropped.
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Disclaimer
This column is for entertainment and information only and is not financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and you could lose money. Any bet you place is at your own risk. Bet only what you can afford to lose, and only where it's legal for you; in Oregon, you must be 21 or older. If gambling stops being fun, help is free and confidential: call 1-877-MY-LIMIT (1-877-695-4648) or visit OPGR.org.
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