Thursday Night Line: Jaguars at Ravens, lines and leans for TNF (Nov. 5)
Quick Read
The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) visit the Baltimore Ravens (4-4) on Thursday Night Football at 5:15 p.m. PT on Prime Video, the only game Thursday.
DraftKings has Jacksonville favored by 10 with a total of 39.5, after Baltimore opened as a 4.5-point favorite with a 49.5 total before Lamar Jackson got hurt.
Our leans: Jaguars -10, Under 39.5 and Derrick Henry under 68.5 rushing yards.
Monday's picks went 2-1, so the combined Night Line record is 9-12-0 and the Thursday Night Line is 4-5-0. Shop Jaguars gear on Amazon.
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Thursday Night Line | Betting analysis
By the Willamette News Sports Desk. Edited by Channing Webb.
For entertainment and information only. Bet responsibly, 21+ in Oregon.
The matchup
Week 9 opens tonight at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, where the Ravens (4-4) host the AFC South-leading Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) at 5:15 p.m. PT on Prime Video. It is the only Thursday night game on the schedule, and it looks nothing like it did a week ago.
Baltimore is down to its third quarterback. Lamar Jackson hurt his right thumb on the first offensive play of Sunday's 36-10 loss at Buffalo and is expected to go on injured reserve, and backup Tyler Huntley is out with a toe injury, the Associated Press reported. Undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano, who went 10 of 21 for 91 yards with an interception in relief at Buffalo, makes his first NFL start while playing through an ankle injury. The Ravens are finalizing a trade for veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett from Arizona, but he likely would not start until Nov. 15 against the Chargers, the AP reported. Baltimore has lost three straight and five of its last six home games.
Jacksonville leads its division by three games after a 42-7 rout of Indianapolis last Sunday. The Jaguars are 14-4 against AFC opponents under second-year coach Liam Coen and lead the NFL with 10 scores of 25 or more yards this season, per the AP. Baltimore won the last meeting 23-7 on Dec. 17, 2023, in Jacksonville, and the Jaguars lead the series 13-11.
Last week grading
Monday Night Line (Bears at Seahawks, final Bears 34, Seahawks 17): Bears +3 won (Chicago won by 17), Under 46.5 lost (51 points), Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 97.5 receiving yards won (six catches for 118 yards and a touchdown, per the ESPN box score). Monday Night Line is 5-7-0. Nothing else was left to grade, so the Thursday Night Line stays at 4-5-0.
The lines
Odds from DraftKings via ESPN, checked at about 10:25 a.m. PT Thursday, Nov. 5:
Spread: Jaguars -10 (-105), Ravens +10 (-115)
Total: 39.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Moneyline: Jaguars -500, Ravens +380
This is one of the biggest moves you will see. ESPN's DraftKings feed shows Baltimore opening as a 4.5-point favorite at -218 on the moneyline with a total of 49.5, so the spread has swung 14.5 points toward Jacksonville and the total has fallen 10 points. RotoWire reported 81% of tickets and 89% of the money on the Jaguars earlier in the week. Lines move, so check your own book before kickoff.
Three key factors
Injuries. Baltimore has ruled out quarterbacks Lamar Jackson (right thumb) and Tyler Huntley (toe) and safety Jaylinn Hawkins (knee), per the official injury report posted on Jaguars.com and ESPN. Cornerback Nate Wiggins (stinger, illness) and running back Adam Randall (neck), who is returning from injured reserve, are questionable. Fagnano (ankle) practiced fully Tuesday and Wednesday and has no game status, and linebacker Roquan Smith (foot), tight end Mark Andrews (hand) and left tackle Ronnie Stanley also carry no designation. Jacksonville lists running back Bhayshul Tuten (ankle, foot), its leading rusher, as questionable after he missed every practice this week, along with defensive end Travon Walker (ribs). Receiver Jakobi Meyers (hamstring, ankle) was limited all week but has no game status. Safety Eric Murray, defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton and right tackle Anton Harrison are on injured reserve, per ESPN. Watch the final inactive list about 90 minutes before kickoff.
Matchups. Baltimore's plan almost has to be Derrick Henry, who leads the team with 632 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, per ESPN, and is 12 yards behind Jerome Bettis for eighth on the NFL's career rushing list. The problem is that Jacksonville allows 3.4 yards a carry, the fewest in the league, according to SI Betting, and the AP calls the Ravens' line against the Jaguars' front the matchup to watch. On the other side, Trevor Lawrence has 17 touchdown passes and four interceptions, per ESPN, and Parker Washington leads the Jaguars with 432 receiving yards. Baltimore's defense has Smith, the only player in the league with at least 60 tackles, multiple sacks and multiple forced fumbles, per the AP. Fans on the other side can find Ravens gear on Amazon.
Trends. Jacksonville is 4-3 against the spread and Baltimore is 2-6, per the AP. The Ravens lost 35-13 to Cincinnati and 36-10 at Buffalo in their last two games, and they have not been shut out since 2002, a 395-game scoring streak. Both teams are on a short week. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives Jacksonville an 81% chance to win. The forecast at M&T Bank Stadium, via ESPN, calls for about 66 degrees, gusts near 10 mph and a 49% chance of rain.
Our leans
These are leans, not locks. We went 2-1 on Monday, but the Thursday Night Line is 4-5-0, so take them for what they are.
Spread: Jaguars -10 (-105). A third-string rookie making his first start on a short week, on a bad ankle, against a top-10 defense is about as tough a spot as the NFL produces. Jacksonville has blown out weak opponents, 35-6 over New England and 42-7 over Indianapolis, and Baltimore has lost its last two by 22 and 26. The risk: 10 is a lot of points on the road, and the Ravens' defense and Henry could keep it ugly and close.
Total: Under 39.5 (-110). Baltimore scored 13 and 10 in its last two games with Jackson available for most of the first one, and Fagnano's only NFL action produced 91 passing yards. A run-heavy Ravens plan shortens the game, and there is a real chance of rain. The caution flag: the total has already dropped 10 points, and the Jaguars can cover this number almost by themselves if their big plays show up.
Player prop: Derrick Henry under 68.5 rushing yards (about -114 at DraftKings, per the odds site StatSniper). Henry has gone under his posted line in six of eight games, with 58, 45 and 53 yards in his last three, per StatSniper's game log, and now he faces the league's stingiest run defense with no passing threat to keep safeties honest. If Baltimore falls behind early, his carries could dry up too. The risk is volume, since the Ravens may hand it to him 20 times no matter what. BetMGM lists him at 67.5, so shop around.
Season record
Combined season record: 9-12-0 (W-L-P)
Thursday Night Line: 4-5-0
Monday Night Line: 5-7-0
Sources
ESPN game page: DraftKings odds, injuries, team leaders, Matchup Predictor, forecast and the AP preview
Jaguars.com: official Week 9 injury report for both teams
SI Betting: line history and Jacksonville's run defense
RotoWire: Week 9 line moves and betting splits
StatSniper: Derrick Henry rushing yards lines by sportsbook and game log
ESPN box score, Bears at Seahawks: Monday final and Jaxon Smith-Njigba receiving line
Cover photo: M&T Bank Stadium Exterior at Night, by BullDawg2021, via Wikimedia Commons, licensed CC BY 4.0.
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Disclaimer
This column is for entertainment and information only and is not financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and you could lose money. Any bet you place is at your own risk. Bet only what you can afford to lose, and only where it's legal for you; in Oregon, you must be 21 or older. If gambling stops being fun, help is free and confidential: call 1-877-MY-LIMIT (1-877-695-4648) or visit OPGR.org.
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