World Series Line: Brewers at Rays, Game 3 preview, lines and leans (Oct. 25)
Quick Read
The Milwaukee Brewers lead the World Series 2-0 and visit the Tampa Bay Rays for Game 3 on Monday at Tropicana Field, with first pitch at 5 p.m. PT on FOX after Sunday's off day.
DraftKings lists the Rays at -121 and the Brewers at +103, with a total of 7 runs (Over -108, Under -110).
Our leans: Rays moneyline (-121), Under 7 runs (-110) and Robert Gasser under 3.5 strikeouts.
All three Game 2 leans lost in Milwaukee's 5-4 comeback win, so the World Series Line record is 2-3-0.
World Series Line | Betting analysis
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There is no World Series game today. Sunday is a travel day, so this column previews Game 3 on Monday night in St. Petersburg.
Game 2 recap
Milwaukee spotted Tampa Bay a 4-0 lead in the first inning and still won 5-4 on Saturday night to take a 2-0 Series lead, the Associated Press reported. Brewers rookie shortstop Cooper Pratt bounced a throw on Yandy Díaz's leadoff grounder, and the Rays followed with run-scoring singles from Chandler Simpson and Junior Caminero and a two-run homer from Liam Hicks off Logan Henderson, according to MLB.com.
The Brewers got two back in the bottom of the first on a William Contreras hit-and-run single and a Garrett Mitchell single, and David Hamilton's grounder that skipped under Jonathan Aranda's glove at first scored a third run in the fourth, MLB.com reported. Sal Frelick tied it in the sixth with a homer to center off Ian Seymour at the end of a nine-pitch at-bat, his first home run in three months, per the AP. In the seventh, Brice Turang doubled off Tyler Wells and Pratt looped the go-ahead single to right off Kevin Kelly.
Aaron Ashby got the final five outs for the save, striking out Díaz on a check swing with the tying run at third to end it, according to MLB.com and the AP. Milwaukee has now won seven straight games and became the fifth team to come back from four-run deficits twice in one postseason, the AP reported.
Key performances
Cooper Pratt. The 22-year-old made his fourth error of the postseason in the first inning, then walked and scored in the fourth and drove in the winning run in the seventh, MLB.com reported. "As long as there's game left, we have a chance," Pratt said, per the AP.
Sal Frelick. He had gone 103 plate appearances without a homer and had not gone deep against a lefty since opening day before his game-tying shot, the AP reported.
The Milwaukee bullpen. Brewers relievers threw six scoreless innings after Henderson left, with Abner Uribe getting the win and Ashby the save, per Baseball-Reference. Ashby has not allowed a run in 15 2/3 postseason innings, and Brewers relievers have a 1.24 ERA this October, MLB.com reported.
Drew Rasmussen. The Rays ace, an Oregon State product, allowed three runs on six hits in 3 2/3 innings, his shortest start in months, according to Baseball-Reference and MLB.com. Henderson lasted just three innings for Milwaukee, allowing four runs (three earned).
Game 3 matchup
Game 3 is Monday at 5 p.m. PT (8 p.m. ET) on FOX at Tropicana Field, with Freddy Peralta starting for Tampa Bay against Milwaukee left-hander Robert Gasser, according to MLB.com. Game 4 is Tuesday and, if needed, Game 5 is Wednesday, both in St. Petersburg.
Peralta. The ALCS MVP is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA this postseason and 7-0 with a 0.89 ERA in his last 10 games since Aug. 26, MLB.com reported. He has a 1.45 ERA in seven starts at Tropicana Field since the Rays acquired him at the trade deadline, and Tampa Bay gave him extra rest after the ALCS. He pitched eight seasons for Milwaukee before the Brewers traded him in January.
Gasser. He began the season at Triple-A Nashville and has allowed one run in nine innings over two postseason starts, MLB.com reported. Sports Illustrated expects him to go four or five innings before Brewers manager Pat Murphy turns to his bullpen. He will be the first left-handed starter the Rays have seen in this Series.
Injuries. Tampa Bay starter Shane McClanahan is out for the postseason, and MLB.com reported nothing else new for the Rays. For Milwaukee, Brandon Woodruff is on the World Series roster but has not pitched in either game and has not appeared in a game since July 4, per MLB.com.
Storylines and managerial decisions
Rays beating themselves. MLB.com reported Tampa Bay has run into unnecessary outs and made uncharacteristic mistakes in the field, and the AP counted one error, two other defensive misplays and a runner thrown out at the plate in Game 2. "Against Milwaukee, if you give up outs, they're gonna do that, they're gonna use that against you," Caminero said. "It is frustrating," Díaz said through an interpreter. "We didn't do our job and score more runs to help out our pitchers."
Cash's plan backfired, for now. Rays manager Kevin Cash lined up Rasmussen and Peralta for Games 2 and 3 so each could pitch on extra rest. Rasmussen did not get out of the fourth inning, so Monday falls to Peralta. MLB.com expects every Rays reliever, including closer Bryan Baker, to be available after the off day, with a question of whether Griffin Jax pitches in relief or saves himself for a possible Game 4 start.
Murphy's bullpen. Ashby's five-out save gave closer Trevor Megill the night off, and the Brewers are the first team since the save became a stat in 1969 with eight saves in one postseason, MLB.com reported. Relievers have won eight of Milwaukee's nine games this postseason. MLB.com projects the Brewers to keep the same lineup they used in Games 1 and 2.
History. Of the 57 teams to take a 2-0 World Series lead, 46 (80.7%) won the title, including 45 of 55 in best-of-seven Series, MLB.com reported. The Rays did win three straight to come back from a 2-1 deficit against Cleveland in the ALCS. DraftKings now lists Milwaukee at -750 to win the Series and Tampa Bay at +500, according to FOX Sports.
Back at the Trop. Monday will be the first World Series game at Tropicana Field since Game 2 in 2008, MLB.com reported. That game was the first World Series win in Rays history.
The Pacific Northwest angle. Peralta started in the Mariners' system. Seattle signed him out of the Dominican Republic in 2013 and traded him to Milwaukee in 2015 for first baseman Adam Lind, Seattle Sports reported. One of the Brewers' hitting coaches is former Mariners All-Star Daniel Vogelbach, and MLB.com reported he pulled Pratt aside before the go-ahead hit Saturday and told him, "You're born for this stuff." The Brewers franchise began in 1969 as the Seattle Pilots, so a title would be the first for any franchise that has called Seattle home, Seattle Sports noted.
The lines
Odds from DraftKings via VegasInsider, checked at about 10:30 a.m. PT Sunday, Oct. 25:
Moneyline: Rays -121, Brewers +103
Run line: Brewers -1.5 (+182), Rays +1.5 (-218), as listed
Total: 7 (Over -108, Under -110)
VegasInsider shows the Rays opened at -121 with the Brewers at +101, so the moneyline has not moved, and the total opened at 7. ScoresAndOdds shows most bets on Milwaukee and on the Over. Lines move, so check your own book before first pitch.
Our leans
These are leans, not locks. We went 0-3 in Game 2, so take them for what they are.
Moneyline: Rays (-121, DraftKings). Peralta has been close to unhittable since late August, especially at home, and Covers noted right-handed hitters slugged .442 against Gasser this season, which favors Díaz and Caminero. Covers and USA Today's Sportsbook Wire both lean Tampa Bay. The risk is plain: Milwaukee has the better record and a bullpen that keeps winning one-run games.
Total: Under 7 (-110, DraftKings). Both starters have postseason ERAs near 1.00, both bullpens are rested after the off day, and Sportsbook Wire pointed out that only three runs scored in the final eight innings of Game 2. Our Under lost Saturday because of a four-run first inning, and that can happen again.
Player prop: Robert Gasser under 3.5 strikeouts (about -120 to -150 depending on the book, per ScoresAndOdds). He has six strikeouts in nine postseason innings, per MLB.com, and SI expects a short start. Covers reported the Rays have the lowest whiff rate in the majors at 20.7%, while Gasser got swings and misses on just 22.5% of swings. Prices vary by book, so shop around.
FanDuel lineup
FanDuel's single-game format uses six roster spots: one MVP, who earns 1.5 times his points and costs 1.5 times his salary, plus five Flex spots at normal salary and scoring, according to FanDuel Research. The salary cap is $60,000, and you can roster up to five players from one team, per DFS Hero's MLB format guide. We could not verify FanDuel salaries for Monday's game as of Sunday morning, so this lineup is built on projected lineups and matchups, and salaries are omitted. Check that it fits under the cap in the app.
MVP: Junior Caminero, Rays 3B. He projects to bat cleanup against a lefty, per MLB.com, and Covers singled him out as a right-handed bat with a clear path to damage against Gasser.
Flex: Yandy Díaz, Rays DH. He is MLB.com's projected leadoff hitter against the left-hander, which means extra plate appearances.
Flex: Chandler Simpson, Rays LF. He drove in a run and stole second in Game 2, per MLB.com, and stolen bases score well on FanDuel.
Flex: William Contreras, Brewers C. His 15 hits lead all players this postseason, along with a 1.135 OPS, MLB.com reported.
Flex: Jackson Chourio, Brewers LF. The leadoff man had two hits and two stolen bases in Game 2, per MLB.com.
Flex: Jake Bauers, Brewers 1B. Covers likes him against Peralta's four-seam fastball, noting 18 of his 26 home runs came against right-handed pitching.
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World Series record
World Series Line record: 2-3-0 (W-L-P)
Game 1, Under 6.5 runs: Win. The Brewers won 3-2, five total runs.
Game 1, Jacob Misiorowski under 6.5 strikeouts: Win. He struck out three in five innings.
Game 2, Rays moneyline (even): Loss. The Brewers won 5-4.
Game 2, Under 6.5 runs: Loss. Nine total runs.
Game 2, Drew Rasmussen over 16.5 outs recorded: Loss. He recorded 11 outs (3 2/3 innings).
The FanDuel lineup is for fun and is not graded. We will grade Monday's three leans in the next World Series Line column.
Sources
MLB.com: Brewers-Rays World Series Game 3 FAQ, by Anthony Castrovince, Adam Berry and Adam McCalvy
MLB.com: Brewers erase four-run deficit, win World Series Game 2
MLB.com: Methodical Brewers chip away at Rays, rally to seize 2-0 lead
MLB.com: 2026 postseason and World Series schedule
Associated Press via NBC News: Frelick, Pratt lift Brewers to 5-4 comeback win over Rays and 2-0 World Series lead
Baseball-Reference: World Series Game 2 box score
Sports Illustrated: Probable starting pitchers for Game 3
Seattle Sports: The World Series is loaded with ties to PNW and Seattle Mariners, by Brent Stecker
VegasInsider: Brewers vs. Rays odds and line movement
ScoresAndOdds: Brewers vs. Rays odds, betting splits and player props
FOX Sports: 2026 World Series odds
Covers: Brewers vs. Rays prediction for Game 3
USA Today Sportsbook Wire: Brewers at Rays Game 3 odds, picks and predictions
FanDuel Research: FanDuel's single-game format
DFS Hero: MLB roster formats and salary caps
Cover photo: Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida, June 2024, by Quintin Soloviev, via Wikimedia Commons, licensed CC BY 4.0
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Disclaimer
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