World Series Line: Rays at Brewers, Game 2 lines and leans (Oct. 24)
Quick Read
The Tampa Bay Rays visit the Milwaukee Brewers in World Series Game 2 tonight at American Family Field, with first pitch at 5 p.m. PT on FOX and Milwaukee leading the Series 1-0.
DraftKings lists the Brewers at -120 and the Rays at even money, with a total of 6.5 runs (-110 both ways).
Our leans: Rays moneyline (even), Under 6.5 runs (-110) and Drew Rasmussen over 16.5 outs recorded (-140).
Both Game 1 leans won, so the World Series Line record is 2-0-0 heading into Game 2.
World Series Line | Betting analysis
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Game 1 recap
Milwaukee beat Tampa Bay 3-2 on Friday night to take a 1-0 Series lead, and it took two final outs to do it, the Associated Press reported. With the bases loaded and one out in the ninth, Liam Hicks hit a grounder that was first ruled a game-ending double play. Fireworks went off and players poured onto the field, but a video review showed Brewers rookie shortstop Cooper Pratt's right foot was slightly off the bag at second, and the call was overturned as Tampa Bay pulled within a run. Closer Trevor Megill then struck out Jonny DeLuca on a 2-2 pitch with two runners in scoring position to end it, according to the AP.
Christian Yelich tripled home the first run in the first inning and William Contreras followed with an RBI single for a 2-0 lead, according to the AP and RotoWire. Jackson Chourio singled home Pratt in the seventh for an insurance run that turned out to be the difference. Tampa Bay went 0 for 6 with runners in scoring position, the AP reported.
Key performances
Jacob Misiorowski. The Brewers ace opened the game with a 103.5 mph fastball, the fastest pitch ever thrown in a World Series, and allowed one run on four hits and one walk over five innings, MLB.com reported. He struck out a season-low three and got just 17 swings and misses on 78 pitches, but earned his first career playoff win.
The Milwaukee bullpen. Abner Uribe and Aaron Ashby shut down the Rays through the eighth before Megill earned the save, according to the AP and Baseball-Reference.
Contreras and Chourio. Each had two hits and an RBI, and Contreras also threw out two runners trying to steal, the AP reported. MLB.com noted they were the first Brewers with multiple hits in a World Series game since Paul Molitor in Game 7 in 1982.
Jonathan Aranda. The Rays first baseman went 3 for 3 with a walk, and Chandler Simpson added two hits, according to the AP. Nick Martinez allowed two runs in the first inning, then held Milwaukee scoreless the rest of his five innings.
Game 2 matchup
Game 2 is tonight at 5 p.m. PT (8 p.m. ET) on FOX, with Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA in the regular season) starting for Tampa Bay against Brewers rookie Logan Henderson (11-3, 2.47), according to MLB.com. Covers reports the American Family Field roof is expected to be closed.
Rasmussen. He is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA this postseason, with 23 strikeouts in 21 innings, and he has pitched into the seventh inning in all three October starts, MLB.com reported. Since the All-Star break he is 11-0 with a 1.73 ERA, and the Rays are 14-1 in his 15 starts over that stretch.
Henderson. The Brewers are 21-4 in his 25 career starts, regular season and postseason, including 2-0 in these playoffs, MLB.com reported. He has allowed three earned runs in nine postseason innings, but his NLCS Game 2 start against the Dodgers was marred by a wild pitch and two errant pickoff throws. At home this season he went 6-0 with a 1.84 ERA, according to RotoWire.
Injuries. Tampa Bay starter Shane McClanahan remains out for the postseason, and MLB.com reported nothing else new for the Rays. For Milwaukee, the question is still Brandon Woodruff, who was added to the World Series roster but did not pitch in Game 1 and has not pitched in a game since July 4, per MLB.com.
Storylines and managerial decisions
Cash's call. Rays manager Kevin Cash held Rasmussen for Game 2 so he could pitch on an extra day of rest, as he has most of this season, rather than face Misiorowski in the opener, MLB.com reported. "Our information tells us over many, many times of doing this that that extra day plays a huge benefit," Cash said. MLB.com's Will Leitch wrote that the decision will look questionable if the Rays cannot win with Rasmussen tonight.
Murphy's bullpen. Brewers manager Pat Murphy has leaned on Ashby, Uribe and Megill for 28 1/3 of the team's 44 2/3 bullpen innings this postseason, and they covered the final four innings again Friday, according to MLB.com. Lefties DL Hall and JoJo Romero are available if Murphy wants to save Ashby. The Rays used only four relievers in Game 1, leaving closer Bryan Baker, lefty Cam Booser and setup man Tyler Wells rested, with an off day coming Sunday.
History says 1-0 matters. Teams taking a 1-0 lead at home in a 2-3-2 best-of-seven series have gone on to win 70 of 104 times (67%), and teams taking a 2-0 World Series lead have won 45 of 55 best-of-seven Series, MLB.com reported. The Rays are 0-3 all-time in World Series Game 1s but 2-0 in Game 2s.
The Pacific Northwest angle. Rasmussen is facing the team that gave him his start. Tampa Bay drafted him 31st overall out of Oregon State in 2017 but could not sign him because of an elbow problem, so he went back to the Beavers before Milwaukee took him in the sixth round in 2018, MLB.com reported. The Brewers traded him to the Rays in 2021. "Had the Brewers been playing anyone else in the World Series, man, I'd be rooting for them," Rasmussen said. He was born in Puyallup and grew up in Spokane, and Rays reliever Booser is a Seattle native, Seattle Sports reported.
The lines
Odds from DraftKings via VegasInsider, checked at about 10:30 a.m. PT Saturday, Oct. 24:
Moneyline: Brewers -120, Rays even (+100)
Run line: Rays -1.5 (+180), Brewers +1.5 (-221)
Total: 6.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
VegasInsider shows the Brewers opened at -122 with the Rays at +102, so the moneyline has barely moved. The run line has flipped since the open, when Milwaukee was -1.5 at +181, and the total has stayed at 6.5. Lines move, so check your own book before first pitch.
Our leans
These are leans, not locks.
Moneyline: Rays (even, DraftKings). Rasmussen has been one of the best starters of the postseason by the numbers, and the Rays' top relievers are fully rested. Baseball Prospectus called the pitching matchup a mismatch on paper, while noting Milwaukee does not need Henderson to go deep. At even money we will take the better starter, knowing the Brewers have won 21 of Henderson's 25 career starts.
Total: Under 6.5 (-110, DraftKings). Both starters rarely walk anyone, Covers reported, Game 1 had no home runs, and both bullpens are in good shape. The same number cashed for us in Game 1, and RotoWire also leans Under tonight.
Player prop: Drew Rasmussen over 16.5 outs recorded (-140, per Sports Illustrated). He has gone at least six innings in all three postseason starts and recorded more than 16 outs in 20 of his 30 regular-season starts, SI reported. The risk is that a rested Rays bullpen and Sunday's off day give Cash room to go to his relievers early, and Rasmussen is already well past his career-high workload, per MLB.com. Prices vary by book, so shop around.
FanDuel lineup
FanDuel's single-game format uses six roster spots: one MVP, who costs 1.5 times his salary and earns 1.5 times his points, plus five Flex spots at normal salary and scoring, according to FanDuel Research. The salary cap is $60,000, and you can roster up to five players from one team, per DFS Hero's MLB format guide. Salaries below are FanDuel prices for tonight's game as listed in the FantasyPros FanDuel cheat sheet Saturday morning; confirm them in the app. This lineup totals $59,700.
MVP: Brice Turang, Brewers 2B ($11,800, $17,700 as MVP). FantasyPros projects him as the top FanDuel scorer on the slate after a 100-RBI, 21-homer season, per ESPN and MLB.com.
Flex: Junior Caminero, Rays 3B ($12,800). He hit a ball 112.7 mph and drew a walk in Game 1, per MLB.com, and Baseball Prospectus noted right-handed hitters had a much easier time with Henderson's fastball this season.
Flex: Jake Bauers, Brewers 1B ($9,600). The NLCS MVP walked 94 times in the regular season, and walks earn points on FanDuel.
Flex: Jonathan Aranda, Rays 1B ($9,200). He reached base all four times in Game 1 with three hits and a walk, per the AP.
Flex: Garrett Mitchell, Brewers CF ($6,000). He is projected to bat sixth for Milwaukee, per MLB.com, and FantasyPros' projection gives him one of the lowest costs per point on the slate.
Flex: Richie Palacios, Rays 2B ($4,400). He is projected to start for Tampa Bay, per MLB.com, and his low salary is what makes room for Turang at MVP.
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World Series record
World Series Line record: 2-0-0 (W-L-P)
Game 1, Under 6.5 runs: Win. The Brewers won 3-2, five total runs.
Game 1, Jacob Misiorowski under 6.5 strikeouts: Win. He struck out three in five innings.
The FanDuel lineup is for fun and is not graded. We will grade tonight's three leans in the next World Series Line column.
Sources
MLB.com: Rays-Brewers World Series Game 2 FAQ, by Anthony Castrovince
MLB.com: 3 key questions for World Series Game 2, by Will Leitch
MLB.com: In Game 2, Rasmussen will try to beat team he'd otherwise be rooting for, by Adam Berry
MLB.com: Jacob Misiorowski makes World Series history in Game 1
Associated Press via ESPN: Brewers withstand Rays' comeback attempt to win 3-2 in Game 1 of World Series
MLB.com: Game 1 box score
Baseball-Reference: 2026 World Series
Seattle Sports: The World Series is loaded with ties to PNW and Seattle Mariners, by Brent Stecker
VegasInsider: Rays vs. Brewers odds and line movement
Sports Illustrated: Rays vs. Brewers prediction and prop bets for Game 2
Covers: Rays vs. Brewers prediction for Game 2
RotoWire: Single-game picks for Rays vs. Brewers Game 2
Baseball Prospectus: World Series Game 2 preview, by Mike Gianella
FantasyPros: FanDuel MLB cheat sheet
FanDuel Research: FanDuel's single-game format
DFS Hero: MLB roster formats and salary caps
Cover photo: American Family Field in Milwaukee, October 2023, by DiscoA340, via Wikimedia Commons, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0
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