World Series Line: Rays at Brewers, Game 1 lines and leans (Oct. 23)
Quick Read
The Tampa Bay Rays (98-64) visit the Milwaukee Brewers (103-59) in World Series Game 1 tonight at American Family Field, with first pitch at 5 p.m. PT on FOX.
DraftKings lists the Brewers at -192 and the Rays at +157, with a total of 6.5 runs and Milwaukee -1.5 on the run line at +123.
Our leans: Under 6.5 runs (-108) and Jacob Misiorowski under 6.5 strikeouts (about -105).
Nick Martinez starts for Tampa Bay against Misiorowski, and Oregon State alum Drew Rasmussen is lined up for Game 2.
World Series Line | Betting analysis
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The matchup
The 2026 World Series opens tonight at American Family Field in Milwaukee, where the Brewers (103-59) host the Tampa Bay Rays (98-64) at 5 p.m. PT (8 p.m. ET) on FOX, according to MLB.com. Neither franchise has won a World Series, so the Series will crown a first-time champion. MLB.com notes that has happened only twice in the last 116 years, most recently when the Phillies beat the Royals in 1980.
Milwaukee posted MLB's best record and a franchise-record 103 wins, beat San Diego 3-1 in the NL Division Series, then swept the two-time defending champion Dodgers in the NL Championship Series, according to MLB.com and the Associated Press. Tampa Bay won the AL East, swept the Yankees in the AL Division Series and beat Cleveland in six games in the ALCS after trailing the series 2-1, finishing it with a 7-3 win in Game 6 behind two-run homers from Yandy Díaz and Junior Caminero, the AP reported.
Both clubs did it on a budget and with small ball. The Rays opened the season with a payroll that ranked 26th in the majors, according to the AP, and in the regular season the Rays stole 164 bases and the Brewers 162, with Tampa Bay leading MLB with 45 sacrifice bunts, CBC News reported. Brewers manager Pat Murphy, who took over when Craig Counsell left for the Cubs after the 2023 season, won NL Manager of the Year in 2024 and 2025, MLB.com reported. On the other side, Rays manager Kevin Cash and president of baseball operations Erik Neander built the AL champions mostly through trades and low-cost signings, the AP reported.
Series storylines
Old teams, new uniforms. Both League Championship Series MVPs are facing the clubs they debuted with, MLB.com reported. Brewers first baseman Jake Bauers, the NLCS MVP, broke into the majors with the Rays in 2018. Rays right-hander Freddy Peralta, the ALCS MVP, debuted with Milwaukee that same year, made two All-Star teams there and started the Brewers' playoff opener in 2024 and 2025 before landing with Tampa Bay at this year's trade deadline. Peralta is lined up for Game 3 at Tropicana Field.
A Game 1 surprise. The Rays passed on starting ace Drew Rasmussen on four days of rest and will give him an extra day for Game 2, sending 36-year-old first-time All-Star Nick Martinez to the mound tonight, MLB.com reported. Tampa Bay went 24-9 in Martinez's starts, and he had a 2.38 ERA in 16 road starts compared with 3.90 at home.
Woodruff's gamble. Milwaukee added veteran right-hander Brandon Woodruff to its World Series roster in place of Chad Patrick after Woodruff threw a 23-pitch simulated game this week, part of a late comeback from a shoulder problem that nearly required season-ending surgery, according to MLB.com. The club believes MLB likely would not approve a replacement if he cannot go, because it would involve a preexisting injury.
The Pacific Northwest angle. Rasmussen was born in Puyallup, grew up in Spokane and pitched in college at Oregon State before debuting with the Brewers in 2020, Seattle Sports reported. Rays lefty reliever Cam Booser is a Seattle native and Fife High School product who spent four years as a carpenter before his comeback. Bauers played 72 games for the Mariners in 2021, Brewers second baseman Brice Turang is the son of former Mariner Brian Turang, and the Brewers franchise began as the Seattle Pilots in 1969 before moving to Milwaukee after one season, according to the same report.
The lines
Odds from DraftKings via VegasInsider, checked at about 10:30 a.m. PT Friday, Oct. 23:
Moneyline: Brewers -192, Rays +157
Run line: Brewers -1.5 (+123), Rays +1.5 (-149)
Total: 6.5 (Over -112, Under -108)
The market has moved toward Milwaukee and toward runs. VegasInsider shows the Brewers opened at -160 with the Rays at +132 and a total of 6, so the favorite has grown by about 30 cents and the total is up half a run. Lines move, so check your own book before first pitch.
Three key factors
Pitching and injuries. Misiorowski led MLB in ERA (1.80), strikeouts (252), WHIP (0.80) and opponents' average (.157) in the regular season, according to MLB.com, but he has not finished five innings in either playoff start, as the Padres and Dodgers fouled off pitch after pitch. He will be on 11 days of rest. Martinez (15-6, 3.10 ERA) has allowed three runs in nine postseason innings, all on the road. Tampa Bay ruled out starter Shane McClanahan for the postseason, and MLB.com reported no other new injury news for either club.
Bullpens. Milwaukee relievers are 7-1 with a 1.33 ERA in 40 2/3 postseason innings, and Trevor Megill, Aaron Ashby and DL Hall have combined for 23 1/3 scoreless innings, MLB.com reported. Rays closer Bryan Baker has finished all seven Tampa Bay postseason wins with seven scoreless innings, and the Rays are 92-0 this year, including the playoffs, when leading after eight innings.
Trends. The Brewers finished tied for the second-fewest home runs in the majors with 154, and the Rays ranked 22nd with 169, according to CBC News. Home teams have won 72 of 121 World Series openers, and the Game 1 winner has gone on to win the Series 63.6% of the time, per MLB.com.
Our leans
These are leans, not locks.
Total: Under 6.5 (-108). Two elite bullpens, two lineups that rarely hit the ball over the fence, an ace on the mound for Milwaukee and a Rays starter who has been at his best on the road all point to a low-scoring opener. The total has climbed half a run since it opened, which makes 6.5 a better number for the Under than 6 was.
Player prop: Jacob Misiorowski under 6.5 strikeouts (about -105, per Sports Illustrated). He struck out six against the Padres and five against the Dodgers in his two playoff starts, and Milwaukee has pulled him at 88 and 94 pitches. Tampa Bay had the second-lowest strikeout rate in baseball at 19.1% and has struck out about 7.3 times a game this postseason, according to Sports Illustrated. A longer leash after 11 days off is the risk. Some books may hang a different number, so shop around.
FanDuel lineup
FanDuel's single-game format uses six roster spots: one MVP, who costs 1.5 times his salary and earns 1.5 times his points, plus five Flex spots at normal salary and scoring, according to FanDuel Research. The salary cap is $60,000, and you can roster up to five players from one team, per DFS Hero's FanDuel format guide. We could not verify tonight's FanDuel salaries from FanDuel or a reputable source quoting them, so this lineup is built on projections and expected batting orders from MLB.com, without salary figures. Check that it fits under the cap in the app.
MVP: Yandy Díaz, Rays DH. He has six extra-base hits this postseason, which MLB.com says leads the league, and he is projected to lead off, which means extra plate appearances, per MLB.com.
Flex: Junior Caminero, Rays 3B. He hit 42 homers with 101 RBIs and broke through with a two-run homer in ALCS Game 6, per ESPN and MLB.com.
Flex: Jake Bauers, Brewers 1B. The NLCS MVP drove in six runs against the Dodgers and walked 94 times in the regular season, and walks earn points on FanDuel.
Flex: William Contreras, Brewers C. He is hitting .367 with five RBIs in eight postseason games and bats third, per MLB.com.
Flex: Brice Turang, Brewers 2B. He drove in 100 runs with 21 homers this season and bats second ahead of Contreras and Bauers, per ESPN and MLB.com.
Flex: Jackson Chourio, Brewers LF. He is hitting just .171 this postseason, but he leads Milwaukee with seven playoff RBIs from the leadoff spot, so his ceiling stays high.
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World Series record
World Series Line record: 0-0 (W-L-P)
This is our first World Series column, so there are no earlier picks to grade. We will grade tonight's leans in the Game 2 column.
Sources
MLB.com: Rays-Brewers World Series Game 1 FAQ, by Anthony Castrovince
MLB.com: Rays go with Martinez over Rasmussen in Game 1, by Adam Berry
MLB.com: Both LCS MVPs face teams they debuted with in Fall Classic
MLB.com: Brewers have been MLB's best team under Pat Murphy, by Adam McCalvy
Associated Press: Rays beat Guardians 7-3 to reach the World Series
Associated Press: Padres eliminated by Brewers in 4 games
CBC News: How the Brewers and Rays got to baseball's biggest stage
Seattle Sports: The World Series is loaded with ties to PNW and Seattle Mariners, by Brent Stecker
VegasInsider: Rays vs. Brewers odds and line movement
Sports Illustrated: Rays vs. Brewers prediction and prop bets for Game 1
ESPN: Rays vs. Brewers game page
FanDuel Research: FanDuel's single-game format
DFS Hero: MLB roster formats and salary caps
Cover photo: American Family Field in Milwaukee, October 2023, by DiscoA340, via Wikimedia Commons, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0
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Disclaimer
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