Market pulse: Prediction markets got most of election night right, but missed big in Texas and South Carolina (Nov. 4)
Quick Read
On Election Day morning, Kalshi traders gave Texas Gov. Greg Abbott about a 66% chance to win. Democrat Gina Hinojosa beat him, 52.8% to 45.7%, with about 97% of the vote counted.
Traders also had South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham at about 71%. Democrat Annie Andrews won, 51.1% to 46.7%.
Of 25 Senate, governor and control races Willamette News tracked, Kalshi's Election Day favorite won 22. Every miss broke toward Democrats.
In Oregon, the market had Gov. Tina Kotek at about 86% on Election Day morning, and she won a second term.
Prediction markets spent the last week of the campaign telling a fairly clear story: Democrats were favored to win both chambers of Congress. That part held. But the two biggest upsets of the night were races where traders had the Republican as a solid favorite.
The two big misses
Texas governor: As of about 10 a.m. Pacific on Election Day, Kalshi's Texas governor market priced Abbott at about 66 cents on the dollar and Democrat Gina Hinojosa at about 34. Polymarket was a bit closer, with Democrats near 40%. Hinojosa won with 52.8% to Abbott's 45.7%, with about 97% of the expected vote counted, and the Associated Press reports she is the first Democrat elected Texas governor in more than 30 years. More than 70 million Abbott contracts traded on Kalshi in the last day of the market.
South Carolina Senate: Kalshi traders had Sen. Darline Graham, appointed to the seat after her brother Lindsey Graham's death in July, at about 71% on Election Day morning, with Democrat Annie Andrews at about 30. Polymarket had Democrats at about 31%. Andrews won 51.1% to 46.7%, and the AP says she is the first Democrat elected to the Senate from South Carolina in a generation.
The third miss was close to a coin flip. In Iowa, Kalshi had Republican Ashley Hinson at about 51% and Democrat Josh Turek at about 50 on Election Day morning. Turek won.
This is a market, not a forecast
A 66% price does not mean a candidate is supposed to win. It means traders thought it would happen about two times out of three, so the other outcome should happen about one time in three. Two misses at roughly 70% in one night is not shocking on its own. What stands out is that the misses all went the same direction, which suggests traders underestimated how strong the night would be for Democrats.
Where the crowd was right
Senate control: Democrats were about 73% on Kalshi on Election Day morning and won the chamber. Kalshi's market on Democrats winning more than 52 seats now sits near 99%.
House control: Democrats were about 93% and won.
Nebraska Senate: Independent Dan Osborn drew plenty of attention, but traders had him at about 30%. Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts won, per Kalshi's settled market.
Other Senate races: Democrats James Talarico in Texas (about 72%), Troy Jackson in Maine (about 68%), Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan (about 77%) and Adam Hamilton in Kansas (about 62%) were all favored and won.
Governors: Republican Byron Donalds in Florida (about 67%) and Democrats Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia (about 69%), Aaron Ford in Nevada (about 78%) and Amy Acton in Ohio (about 83%) were favored and won.
The Oregon read
Oregon was never in much doubt on the markets. Kalshi's Oregon governor market had Gov. Tina Kotek at about 86% on Election Day morning over Republican Christine Drazan, and she won a second term. Sen. Jeff Merkley was priced near 99% and won reelection. Alaska's Senate race is the one big contest on Kalshi still unsettled, with Democrats at about 92%.
Sources: Kalshi Texas governor market, Kalshi South Carolina Senate market, Kalshi Iowa Senate market, Kalshi Nebraska Senate market, Kalshi Senate control market, Kalshi Oregon governor market, Polymarket Texas governor market, Polymarket South Carolina Senate market, AP on the Texas governor race, AP on the South Carolina Senate race. The 25 races counted are Senate and House control, 12 Senate races and 11 governor races with active Kalshi markets; Alaska is excluded because it is unsettled. Election Day prices are Kalshi's prices from about 24 hours before this check, about 10 a.m. PT on Nov. 3, 2026. Vote shares are unofficial. Cover photo: Architect of the Capitol / Wikimedia Commons, public domain.
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For information only, not betting or investment advice. Prediction markets reflect trader prices, not certainties. Willamette News has no financial relationship with Kalshi or Polymarket.
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