Market pulse: Traders all but call Mississippi Senate and L.A. mayor upsets the networks won't yet (Nov. 4)
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On Election Day morning, Kalshi traders gave Democrat Scott Colom about a 13% to 15% chance to beat Mississippi Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. As of Wednesday evening, they price him near 97%.
Colom leads by about 1,100 votes, 49.0% to 48.9%, with about 96% of the expected vote counted, and NBC News still calls the race too close to call.
In Los Angeles, traders moved councilmember Nithya Raman from about 42% to above 99% to unseat Mayor Karen Bass, who trails in the count and has not conceded.
These are trader prices on uncalled races, not results. Thousands of ballots are still being counted in both places.
A day after election night, two of the most-traded contracts on Kalshi are races no major news outlet has called. In both, traders have stopped treating the outcome as close.
Mississippi: from long shot to near lock
On the morning of Nov. 3, Kalshi's Mississippi Senate market priced Colom, a district attorney from Columbus, at about 13 to 15 cents on the dollar. Hyde-Smith, in the Senate since 2018, was around 85. CBS News noted that a Colom win still appeared exceedingly unlikely heading into Election Day in a state President Trump carried by 20 points in 2024 and that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1982.
The price spiked once results came in Tuesday night, and by Wednesday evening Colom was trading near 97 cents. Polymarket was at about the same level, near 97.5%. More than 12 million contracts have changed hands on the Kalshi market.
The count itself is razor-thin. ABC News shows Colom with 464,926 votes, or 49.0%, to Hyde-Smith's 463,788, or 48.9%, with independent Ty Pinkins at about 2%. NBC News estimates about 45,000 votes remain and says Hyde-Smith would need about 50.2% of them to catch up. CBS reported that at one point Wednesday morning just a few dozen votes separated the two.
Los Angeles: a midnight flip
Kalshi's L.A. mayor market had Bass, the incumbent, at about 58% on Election Day morning, with Raman near 42%. Bass led the early count Tuesday night, by about 1.9 points at 8:31 p.m., according to The Basin's results tracker. Raman pulled ahead shortly after midnight, and traders followed. Bass is now under 1% on Kalshi and on Polymarket.
As of about 4:30 p.m. Wednesday, Raman led 51.7% to 48.3%, a margin of about 26,000 votes with roughly 67% of expected ballots counted, NBC Los Angeles reported. NBC News still lists the race as too close to call, and Bass's campaign declined to comment Wednesday. About 31 million Raman contracts have traded on Kalshi, one of the busiest markets of the election.
This is a market, not a forecast
A 97% price means traders think the trailing candidate would come back about three times in 100. That is a judgment about where the uncounted ballots come from, not a tally. California counts mail ballots for days and Mississippi's margin is about a tenth of a point, so the official results can still move. Kalshi pays out only when the race is certified or the winner is sworn in, depending on each market's rules.
Why it matters beyond the two races
Senate size: Democrats have already won control. Kalshi's market on the exact number of Democratic Senate seats now has 56 as the clear favorite at about 87%, up from about 22% a day ago. That count assumes wins in both Mississippi and Alaska.
Alaska: Democrat Mary Peltola is priced near 93% on Kalshi against Sen. Dan Sullivan. ABC shows her ahead 48.2% to 47.9% with about 74% of the expected vote in.
West Coast: Raman, a self-described democratic socialist, would lead the nation's second-largest city after unseating a sitting mayor whom all 14 of her council colleagues endorsed, according to NBC Los Angeles.
Sources: Kalshi Mississippi Senate market, Kalshi L.A. mayor market, Kalshi Alaska Senate market, Kalshi Democratic Senate seats market, Polymarket Mississippi Senate market, Polymarket L.A. mayor market, CBS News, NBC News Mississippi results, ABC News results, NBC Los Angeles, The Basin. Kalshi and Polymarket prices as of about 5 p.m. PT on Nov. 4, 2026; Election Day prices are Kalshi's hourly prices from the morning of Nov. 3. Vote counts are unofficial. Cover photo: Michael Barera / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
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For information only, not betting or investment advice. Prediction markets reflect trader prices, not certainties. Willamette News has no financial relationship with Kalshi or Polymarket.
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