World Series Line: Brewers at Rays, Game 3 lines and leans (Oct. 26)
Quick Read
The Milwaukee Brewers lead the World Series 2-0 and play the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 3 tonight at Tropicana Field, with first pitch at 5 p.m. PT on FOX.
DraftKings lists the Rays at -118 and the Brewers at -102, with a total of 7 runs (Over -115, Under -105).
Our Game 3 leans, first posted Sunday, stand: Rays moneyline, Under 7 runs and Robert Gasser under 3.5 strikeouts.
Freddy Peralta starts for Tampa Bay against his old team, and the World Series Line record is 2-3-0.
World Series Line | Betting analysis
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This is the game-day edition for Game 3. We posted our leans in Sunday's off-day preview, and they are still our official picks. Nothing material has changed: both probable starters are confirmed, and there is no new injury news. Below are today's lines and how they have moved since Sunday.
Game 3 at a glance
Game 3 is tonight, Monday, Oct. 26, at 5 p.m. PT (8 p.m. ET) at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida, on FOX, FOX Deportes and FOX One, according to MLB.com. ESPN lists it on today's schedule with Milwaukee leading 2-0. Game 4 is Tuesday and, if needed, Game 5 is Wednesday, both in St. Petersburg, before the Series would return to Milwaukee for Games 6 and 7.
The Brewers (103-59) went 48-33 on the road in the regular season, and the Rays (98-64) went 55-26 at home, according to ESPN. MLB Trade Rumors noted no team won more home games than Tampa Bay, and only the Dodgers won more road games than Milwaukee.
How Game 2 went
Milwaukee fell behind 4-0 in the first inning Saturday and still won 5-4, the Associated Press reported. Sal Frelick tied it with a sixth-inning homer, and Cooper Pratt looped the go-ahead single in the seventh after a Brice Turang double, according to MLB.com. Aaron Ashby got the final five outs for the save, ending the game by striking out Yandy Díaz on a check swing with the tying run on third.
Brewers relievers have allowed one run in 10 innings in this Series and have a 1.24 ERA in 50 2/3 innings this postseason, MLB.com's Will Leitch wrote. Tampa Bay was held scoreless for the final eight innings of Game 2, MLB Trade Rumors noted.
Probable pitchers and injuries
Freddy Peralta, Rays (RHP). MLB.com and ESPN both list Peralta for Tampa Bay. The ALCS MVP is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in 16 2/3 postseason innings, per ESPN, and 7-0 with a 0.89 ERA in his last 10 games since Aug. 26, MLB.com reported. He has a 1.45 ERA in seven starts at Tropicana Field since the Rays acquired him at the trade deadline. He will be working on six days' rest, CBS Sports reported.
MLB.com reported Peralta's four-seam fastball is averaging 96.9 mph this postseason, up from 94.3 mph in the regular season, the second-largest regular season to postseason jump by a pitcher in the pitch-tracking era. "Hopefully it's a seven-inning boost of 105 pitches and he comes out of the ballgame with the lead," Rays manager Kevin Cash said Sunday, per CBS Sports.
Robert Gasser, Brewers (LHP). Gasser is confirmed for Milwaukee by MLB.com and ESPN. He has allowed one run in nine innings over two postseason starts, with six strikeouts, according to ESPN, including five scoreless innings against the Dodgers in the NLCS. He began the season at Triple-A Nashville, MLB.com reported, and he will be the first left-handed starter the Rays have faced in this Series.
Injuries. ESPN's injury report shows no new names. Tampa Bay starter Shane McClanahan is out, and the rest of both lists are players on the 60-day injured list. MLB.com noted Brewers right-hander Brandon Woodruff is on the World Series roster but has not pitched in a game since July 4.
Projected lineups. MLB.com projects the Rays to load up on right-handed hitters against Gasser: Díaz, Jonathan Aranda, Ryan Vilade, Junior Caminero, Chandler Simpson, Jonny DeLuca, Ben Williamson, Nick Fortes and Taylor Walls. It expects Milwaukee to keep the same order it used in Games 1 and 2, led by Jackson Chourio, Jake Bauers, Christian Yelich and William Contreras. These are projections, not official lineups.
Storylines and managerial decisions
Peralta against his old team. Peralta pitched his first eight seasons with Milwaukee, made two All-Star teams there and was traded to the Mets in January before Tampa Bay acquired him at the deadline, MLB.com reported. "He was our ace. He was our guy," Frelick told MLB.com.
The Rays need to clean it up. MLB.com's Leitch wrote that Tampa Bay, a team that won its division by playing tight, clean baseball, has made fielding and baserunning mistakes in this Series. "I guarantee you one thing: that nobody in this clubhouse wants to play the baseball that we've played the last couple days," Caminero said.
Cash's lineup choices. With a lefty on the mound, MLB Trade Rumors wrote that Vilade and Williamson are candidates to start over Victor Mesa Jr. and Richie Palacios, and that Cash has sometimes started Fortes over Liam Hicks at catcher against left-handers.
Murphy's bullpen. Abner Uribe and Ashby were the only Brewers relievers to work in both of the first two games, so Milwaukee's bullpen should be fresh after Sunday's off day, MLB Trade Rumors reported. MLB.com expects every Rays reliever, including closer Bryan Baker, to be available too.
History. Of the 57 teams to take a 2-0 World Series lead, 46 won the title, MLB.com reported. The Rays did come back from a 2-1 deficit against Cleveland in the ALCS by winning three straight. Tonight is the first World Series game at Tropicana Field since 2008.
The Pacific Northwest angle. Peralta started his pro career in the Mariners' system before Seattle traded him to Milwaukee in 2015, and Brewers hitting coach Daniel Vogelbach is a former Mariners All-Star, Seattle Sports reported. The Brewers began in 1969 as the Seattle Pilots. On the Rays side, Game 2 starter Drew Rasmussen is an Oregon State product.
The lines
Odds from DraftKings via VegasInsider, checked at about 10:30 a.m. PT Monday, Oct. 26:
Moneyline: Rays -118, Brewers -102
Run line: Brewers -1.5 (+170), Rays +1.5 (-207), as listed
Total: 7 (Over -115, Under -105)
Line movement. When we posted Sunday, DraftKings had the Rays at -121 and the Brewers at +103, with the Over at -108 and the Under at -110. The moneyline has drifted slightly toward Milwaukee, and the juice on the total has shifted toward the Over, though the number is still 7. Some books, including FanDuel, now hang 7.5. The Brewers' run line price dropped from +182 to +170. Lines move, so check your own book before first pitch.
Our leans
These are leans, not locks. They are the same three picks we posted Sunday, logged once and graded once. Today's prices are listed next to the price we logged.
Moneyline: Rays (logged at -121 Sunday; -118 at DraftKings now). Peralta has been close to unhittable since late August, especially at home, and Tampa Bay gets its first look at a lefty in a lineup tilted toward right-handed hitters. The risk is plain: Milwaukee has the better record, has won seven straight and has a bullpen that keeps winning one-run games.
Total: Under 7 (logged at -110 Sunday; -105 at DraftKings now). Both starters have postseason ERAs near 1.00, both bullpens are rested, and only three runs scored over the last eight innings of Game 2. The market has leaned toward the Over since Sunday, and our Under lost Saturday because of one big inning.
Player prop: Robert Gasser under 3.5 strikeouts (logged at about -120 to -150 by book; about -137 to -165 now, per ScoresAndOdds). He has six strikeouts in nine postseason innings, and Sports Illustrated expects four or five innings from him before Brewers manager Pat Murphy goes to his bullpen. The price has moved toward the Under, so shop around.
FanDuel lineup
FanDuel's MLB single-game format uses six roster spots: one MVP, who earns 1.5 times his points and costs 1.5 times his salary, plus five Flex spots at normal salary and scoring, according to FanDuel Research. The salary cap is $60,000, per DFS Hero's MLB format guide. We could not verify FanDuel salaries for tonight's game from FanDuel or a reputable source quoting them, so this lineup is built on projections and expected batting orders, and salaries are omitted. Check that it fits under the cap in the app.
MVP: Junior Caminero, Rays 3B. He hit 42 home runs this season, per ESPN, and MLB.com projects him to bat cleanup against the left-handed Gasser.
Flex: Yandy Díaz, Rays DH. He is MLB.com's projected leadoff hitter against the lefty, which means extra plate appearances.
Flex: Jonathan Aranda, Rays 1B. MLB.com projects him second in the order and noted he looked sharp in Tampa Bay's four-run first inning in Game 2.
Flex: William Contreras, Brewers C. He leads all players with 15 postseason hits, MLB.com reported.
Flex: Jackson Chourio, Brewers LF. The leadoff man hit .291 this season, per ESPN, and stole two bases in Game 2, per MLB.com.
Flex: Brice Turang, Brewers 2B. He drove in 100 runs this season, per ESPN, and his seventh-inning double set up the winning run in Game 2.
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World Series record
World Series Line record: 2-3-0 (W-L-P)
Game 1, Under 6.5 runs: Win. The Brewers won 3-2, five total runs.
Game 1, Jacob Misiorowski under 6.5 strikeouts: Win. He struck out three in five innings.
Game 2, Rays moneyline (even): Loss. The Brewers won 5-4.
Game 2, Under 6.5 runs: Loss. Nine total runs.
Game 2, Drew Rasmussen over 16.5 outs recorded: Loss. He recorded 11 outs (3 2/3 innings).
Game 3 (tonight): Rays moneyline, Under 7 and Gasser under 3.5 strikeouts are pending. We will grade them in Tuesday's World Series Line column.
The FanDuel lineup is for fun and is not graded.
Sources
MLB.com: Brewers-Rays World Series Game 3 FAQ, by Anthony Castrovince, Adam Berry and Adam McCalvy
MLB.com: 3 pressing questions for World Series Game 3, by Will Leitch
MLB.com: Freddy Peralta's postseason velocity increase
MLB.com: Freddy Peralta ready to face old team in the World Series
MLB.com: Brewers erase four-run deficit, win World Series Game 2
ESPN: Brewers vs. Rays, World Series Game 3 game page, probable pitchers and injury report
Associated Press via NBC News: Frelick, Pratt lift Brewers to 5-4 comeback win over Rays and 2-0 World Series lead
CBS Sports: Rays turn to Freddy Peralta against Brewers in Game 3
MLB Trade Rumors: The Opener: Gasser, Peralta, Rays' lineup, by Charlie Wright
Sports Illustrated: Probable starting pitchers for Game 3
Seattle Sports: The World Series is loaded with ties to PNW and Seattle Mariners, by Brent Stecker
VegasInsider: Brewers vs. Rays odds and line movement
ScoresAndOdds: Brewers vs. Rays odds and player props
FanDuel Research: FanDuel's single-game format
DFS Hero: MLB roster formats and salary caps
Cover photo: Tropicana Field during Game 2 of the 2023 AL Wild Card Series, by Yamasztuka, via Wikimedia Commons, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0
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