World Series Line: Brewers at Rays, Game 4 lines and leans (Oct. 27)
Quick Read
The Milwaukee Brewers lead the World Series 3-0 after a 10-1 win in Game 3 and can clinch their first title tonight in Game 4 at Tropicana Field, 5 p.m. PT on FOX.
DraftKings lists the Brewers at -124 and the Rays at +103, with a total of 7 runs (Over -114, Under -105).
Our Game 4 leans are the Brewers moneyline, Over 7 runs and Rays starter Griffin Jax under 10.5 outs recorded.
Game 3 went 1-2 for us, with Robert Gasser's under 3.5 strikeouts cashing, and the World Series Line record is 3-5-0.
World Series Line | Betting analysis
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Game 4 at a glance
Game 4 is tonight, Tuesday, Oct. 27, at 5 p.m. PT (8 p.m. ET) at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida, on FOX, FOX Deportes and FOX One, according to MLB.com. Milwaukee leads the best-of-seven Series 3-0. If the Rays win, Game 5 is Wednesday in St. Petersburg.
The Brewers (103-59) have won eight straight postseason games and 10 of 11 overall, CBS Sports reported. A win tonight would make them the first team to sweep both a League Championship Series and the World Series since the 1976 Cincinnati Reds, the Associated Press reported.
How Game 3 went
The Brewers routed the Rays 10-1 on Monday, scoring eight runs in the fifth inning, all of them with two outs, according to MLB.com. MLB.com reported that no team had ever scored that many two-out runs in a single World Series inning. Milwaukee did it without a home run, piling up 16 hits per ESPN's box score.
The inning turned on a replay review. With two on and two out, Junior Caminero threw to second for what looked like the final out, but the Brewers challenged and the call on Christian Yelich's slide was overturned, loading the bases, MLB.com reported. Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell, Cooper Pratt, Sal Frelick, David Hamilton and Jackson Chourio followed with run-scoring hits.
Rookie left-hander Robert Gasser threw six scoreless innings, allowing one hit and one walk with three strikeouts, per Baseball-Reference's box score. The AP reported he was the first left-hander to face the minimum 18 batters through six innings of a World Series game since Sandy Koufax in 1965. Chourio went 4 for 5, and William Contreras went 3 for 5.
Freddy Peralta, facing his former team, was charged with five runs on seven hits in 4 2/3 innings, the AP reported. "It's definitely deflating," Rays manager Kevin Cash said, per MLB.com. "How could it not be?"
Probable pitchers and injuries
Griffin Jax, Rays (RHP). MLB.com, CBS Sports and the AP all list Jax as Tampa Bay's Game 4 starter. He went 8-10 with a 3.28 ERA in the regular season, per the AP, and has a 1.88 ERA over 24 innings in his last six outings, MLB.com reported. This postseason he is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in two appearances, and he gave up three runs in four innings as the ALCS Game 3 starter in Cleveland, CBS Sports reported. Sports Illustrated noted he has not thrown more than five innings in an outing since July.
Brewers: to be announced. As of late Tuesday morning, MLB.com, CBS Sports and the AP listed Milwaukee's starter as TBD. Brandon Woodruff said he had been in line to open Game 4 before he pitched the ninth inning of Game 3, CBS Sports reported. MLB.com named Dustin May, Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan as options, or a reliever as an opener. Some sportsbooks list May, but the team had not confirmed it when we published.
Injuries. MLB.com's Game 4 preview reports nothing new. Rays starter Shane McClanahan is out for the postseason. For Milwaukee, the only question was Woodruff, who answered it by getting the last three outs of Game 3.
Projected lineups. MLB.com expects Milwaukee to use the same order for a fourth straight game: Chourio, Jake Bauers, Yelich, Contreras, Turang, Mitchell, Pratt, Frelick and Hamilton. If the Brewers start a right-hander, MLB.com projects a more traditional Rays lineup: Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda, Caminero, Liam Hicks, Chandler Simpson, Victor Mesa Jr., Jonny DeLuca, Richie Palacios and Taylor Walls. These are projections, not official lineups.
Storylines and managerial decisions
History is against Tampa Bay. Of the 25 previous teams to take a 3-0 World Series lead, 21 swept and four won in five games, the AP reported. The 2004 Boston Red Sox, in the ALCS, are the only team to come back from 3-0 down in a best-of-seven postseason series. "We've got nothing to lose, so we might as well play like it," Rays reliever Cam Booser told CBS Sports.
The Rays' bats have gone quiet. Tampa Bay has scored one run in its last 17 innings, with seven hits in that span, MLB.com reported. Aranda and Simpson are the only Rays with more than two hits in the Series.
Murphy's bullpen is rested. Only Antonio Senzatela and Woodruff pitched in relief Monday, so Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill are all fresh for tonight, MLB.com reported.
Cash's all-hands plan. MLB.com expects Cash to keep a short leash on Jax, with Nick Martinez available for length and closer Bryan Baker possibly asked to get more than three outs. Baker has not pitched in this World Series, Sports Illustrated noted.
Chourio and Contreras. Chourio is 8 for 14 in the Series with three steals, and Contreras is the first catcher since Darren Daulton in 1993 to throw out three runners stealing in the first three games of a World Series, MLB.com reported. Contreras also won four ball-strike challenges Monday.
The Pacific Northwest angle. The Brewers began as the Seattle Pilots in 1969 before moving to Milwaukee in 1970, the AP noted. MLB.com pointed out that Milwaukee is one of five current franchises that have never won a World Series, along with the Mariners, Padres, Rays and Rockies. One more Brewers win would leave Seattle on that list.
The lines
Odds from DraftKings via VegasInsider, checked at about 10:40 a.m. PT Tuesday, Oct. 27:
Moneyline: Brewers -124, Rays +103
Run line: Brewers -1.5 (+141), Rays +1.5 (-171)
Total: 7 (Over -114, Under -105)
Line movement. VegasInsider shows Game 4 opening near a pick'em, Brewers -111 and Rays -109, with a total of 7. Money has moved toward Milwaukee since then. Some books, including FanDuel, hang 7.5 on the total. Lines move, so check your own book before first pitch.
Our leans
These are leans, not locks. Each is logged once at the price below and graded in the next column.
Moneyline: Brewers -124. We backed Tampa Bay in Games 2 and 3 and were wrong both times. Milwaukee's late-inning relievers are fully rested, the Rays have one run in their last 17 innings, and Jax is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in 12 career appearances against the Brewers, per CBS Sports. The risk: Milwaukee has not named a starter, and an elimination game brings out every Rays arm.
Total: Over 7 (-114). Both teams are likely to lean on their bullpens early, and Tampa Bay's bullpen let eight runs score in the fifth inning alone Monday after Peralta left. Milwaukee has scored 18 runs in three games. The risk is that the Rays' offense stays cold and the Brewers' rested bullpen carries the game.
Player prop: Griffin Jax under 10.5 outs recorded (about -106 to -112 at most books, per ScoresAndOdds). Getting 11 outs means finishing the fourth inning. Jax has not gone past five innings since July, he lasted four innings in his only postseason start, and MLB.com expects Cash to use a short leash with the season on the line.
FanDuel lineup
FanDuel's MLB single-game format uses six roster spots: one MVP, who earns 1.5 times his points and costs 1.5 times his salary, plus five Flex spots at normal salary and scoring, according to FanDuel Research. The salary cap is $60,000, per DFS Hero's MLB format guide. We could not verify FanDuel salaries for tonight's game from FanDuel or a reputable source quoting them, so this lineup is built on projections and expected batting orders, and salaries are omitted. Check that it fits under the cap in the app.
MVP: Jackson Chourio, Brewers LF. He is 8 for 14 with three steals in the Series, per MLB.com, and bats leadoff.
Flex: William Contreras, Brewers C. He is 7 for 13 with three RBIs in the Series, CBS Sports reported.
Flex: Christian Yelich, Brewers DH. He drove in a run and drew a walk to keep the fifth inning alive in Game 3, per Baseball-Reference.
Flex: Brice Turang, Brewers 2B. His two-run single started Monday's eight-run fifth, and he hits fifth behind Contreras.
Flex: Junior Caminero, Rays 3B. The 42-homer slugger is the Rays' best power threat, and MLB.com projects him third in the order.
Flex: Yandy Díaz, Rays DH. He had two hits in Game 3, including the RBI double that scored Tampa Bay's only run, and leads off.
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World Series record
World Series Line record: 3-5-0 (W-L-P)
Game 3, Rays moneyline (-121): Loss. The Brewers won 10-1.
Game 3, Under 7 runs (-110): Loss. Eleven total runs.
Game 3, Robert Gasser under 3.5 strikeouts: Win. He struck out three in six innings.
Game 2, Rays moneyline (even): Loss. The Brewers won 5-4.
Game 2, Under 6.5 runs: Loss. Nine total runs.
Game 2, Drew Rasmussen over 16.5 outs recorded: Loss. He recorded 11 outs.
Game 1, Under 6.5 runs: Win. The Brewers won 3-2.
Game 1, Jacob Misiorowski under 6.5 strikeouts: Win. He struck out three in five innings.
Game 4 (tonight): Brewers moneyline, Over 7 and Jax under 10.5 outs are pending. We will grade them in the next World Series Line column.
The FanDuel lineup is for fun and is not graded.
Sources
MLB.com: When is Brewers-Rays World Series Game 4? Date, time and lineups
MLB.com: With historic romp, unrelenting Crew just 1 win from 1st World Series title
ESPN: Brewers 10, Rays 1, World Series Game 3 box score
Baseball-Reference: 2026 World Series Game 3 box score and play-by-play
Associated Press via NBC News: Brewers rout the Rays 10-1 to move within a win of their first World Series title
Associated Press: Brewers look to sweep Rays in World Series Game 4
CBS Sports: Brewers aim to sweep Rays in Game 4 for first World Series title
Sports Illustrated: Probable pitchers in Rays' do-or-die World Series Game 4
VegasInsider: Brewers vs. Rays odds and line movement
ScoresAndOdds: Brewers vs. Rays odds and player props
FanDuel Research: FanDuel's single-game format
DFS Hero: MLB roster formats and salary caps
Cover photo: Jackson Chourio at bat in Anaheim, June 2024, by Sewageboy, via Wikimedia Commons, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0
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