World Series Line: Brewers at Rays, Game 5 lines and leans (Oct. 28)
Quick Read
The Tampa Bay Rays beat the Milwaukee Brewers 4-3 in 12 innings in Game 4, so Milwaukee leads the World Series 3-1 heading into Game 5 tonight at Tropicana Field, 5 p.m. PT on FOX.
DraftKings lists the Brewers at -162 and the Rays at +134, with a total of 6.5 runs (Over -120, Under even).
Our Game 5 leans are the Brewers moneyline, Under 6.5 runs and Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski under 5.5 strikeouts.
Game 4 went 0-2-1 for us, with the total pushing at exactly 7 runs, and the World Series Line record is 3-7-1.
World Series Line | Betting analysis
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Game 5 at a glance
Game 5 is tonight, Wednesday, Oct. 28, at 5 p.m. PT (8 p.m. ET) at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida, on FOX and FOX Deportes, with streaming on FOX One, according to MLB.com. Milwaukee leads the best-of-seven Series 3-1. A Brewers win ends the Series. If the Rays win, Thursday is an off day and the Series returns to Milwaukee for Game 6.
The Rays are the fifth team to force a Game 5 after trailing a World Series 3-0, joining the 2024 Yankees, 1970 Reds, 1937 Giants and 1910 Cubs, MLB.com reported. None of those four forced a Game 6. Tampa Bay also lost Game 5 in both of its previous World Series trips, in 2008 and 2020, MLB.com noted.
How Game 4 went
The Rays won 4-3 in 12 innings on Tuesday night, a 4-hour, 20-minute game in front of 40,514 at Tropicana Field, per Baseball-Reference's box score. It snapped Milwaukee's eight-game postseason winning streak, MLB.com reported.
Brewers rookie Cooper Pratt led off the 12th with a home run off Rays lefty Ian Seymour for a 3-2 lead. Pratt finished 4 for 5, and MLB.com reported he is the first rookie with four hits in a potential World Series clincher, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. "That was probably one of the coolest swings of my life," Pratt said, per MLB.com. "But it's over."
In the bottom of the 12th, Junior Caminero reached when third baseman Joey Ortiz's throw skipped past first base for an error, the Associated Press reported. Liam Hicks, Jonny DeLuca, Chandler Simpson and pinch-hitter Ben Williamson then singled in a 15-pitch span against Brewers rookie lefty Shane Drohan, and Williamson's chopper over first base won it. "I've got to make that play," Ortiz said, per the AP. "Just no excuse about it."
Earlier, both starters were gone by the fifth. Brewers starter Dustin May allowed two runs in three innings, and Rays starter Griffin Jax allowed two runs in four innings with six strikeouts, including David Hamilton's solo homer in the fifth, per Baseball-Reference. From there the bullpens held it at 2-2 until the 12th. Aaron Ashby recorded seven more scoreless outs and now has 18 straight scoreless innings this postseason, the longest such streak by a reliever, breaking Andrew Miller's 2016 mark, MLB.com reported.
Probable pitchers and injuries
Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers (RHP). MLB.com and the AP list Misiorowski as Milwaukee's Game 5 starter. He led the majors in the regular season in ERA (1.80), strikeouts (252), WHIP (0.80) and opponents' batting average (.157), MLB.com reported. He is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in three postseason starts and allowed one run on four hits in five innings in Game 1, when he struck out three. He pitches on regular rest.
Rays: to be announced. As of late Wednesday morning, MLB.com and the AP listed Tampa Bay's starter as TBD, and Rays manager Kevin Cash said after Game 4 that he had not decided, the AP reported. All five Rays starters have pitched in the past four nights, so MLB.com expects a bullpen game, calling a short-rest start by Drew Rasmussen unlikely. Some sportsbooks list Rasmussen, but the team had not confirmed it when we published. MLB.com named Cole Sulser, Steven Matz and Garrett Cleavinger as the freshest Rays arms.
Injuries. Caminero hobbled off in the 12th with a sore left foot but said he will play tonight, the AP reported. "He'll play tomorrow on one leg. I'll make sure of it," Cash said. Rays starter Shane McClanahan remains out for the postseason, and MLB.com reports nothing new for Milwaukee.
Projected lineups. MLB.com projects Milwaukee to go back to its Games 1 through 3 order: Jackson Chourio, Jake Bauers, Christian Yelich, William Contreras, Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell, Pratt, Sal Frelick and Hamilton. For Tampa Bay, MLB.com projects Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda, Caminero, Hicks, Simpson, DeLuca, Victor Mesa Jr., Richie Palacios and Taylor Walls. These are projections, not official lineups.
Storylines and managerial decisions
Murphy kept his ace in the bullpen. Misiorowski was in the bullpen late in Game 4 but was never going to pitch in relief, Brewers manager Pat Murphy said, per MLB.com. "You can't blow that type of situation on a one-run lead on the road," Murphy said. Murphy also said he regretted, in hindsight, using Trevor Megill for only one batter, though he would make the same call again, MLB.com reported.
Milwaukee's bullpen is in decent shape. Megill threw five pitches and Abner Uribe 19 in Game 4, so both should be ready tonight, and Ashby (31 pitches) will probably be available, MLB.com reported. Brandon Woodruff could also be in the mix.
Cash's all-hands night. The Rays used seven pitchers Tuesday, including would-be Game 5 starter Nick Martinez for two innings in relief, MLB.com reported. Closer Bryan Baker pitched two innings for the first time since 2024, and Seymour threw 32 pitches. Cash said "most guys" should be able to work an inning or more.
Chourio and Pratt. Chourio's 10 hits are tied with Babe Ruth in 1928 for the most in the first four games of a World Series, and his 31 career postseason hits are the most by any player before turning 23, MLB.com reported. Pratt and Chourio are both 22.
The Pacific Northwest angle. The franchise began as the Seattle Pilots in 1969 before moving to Milwaukee. The Brewers are one of five current franchises that have never won a World Series, along with the Mariners, Padres, Rays and Rockies, MLB.com noted. A Milwaukee win tonight would leave Seattle on that list, and so would a Rays title.
The lines
Odds from DraftKings via VegasInsider, checked at about 10:30 a.m. PT Wednesday, Oct. 28:
Moneyline: Brewers -162, Rays +134
Run line: Brewers -1.5 (+118), Rays +1.5 (-142)
Total: 6.5 (Over -120, Under even)
Line movement. VegasInsider shows Game 5 opening at Brewers -131 and Rays +109, with a total of 6.5. Money has moved toward Milwaukee since the opener, with most major books now between -156 and -165. Lines move, so check your own book before first pitch.
Our leans
These are leans, not locks. Each is logged once at the price below and graded in the next column.
Moneyline: Brewers -162. Milwaukee has the majors' ERA leader on regular rest against a Rays staff that MLB.com expects to cover the game with a bullpen that just threw 12 innings. The risk: the Rays' contact-first lineup finally looked like itself in the 12th inning Tuesday, and the price is steep.
Total: Under 6.5 (even). The Rays have scored 11 runs in four games, and two of the four games have finished with seven or fewer runs. Misiorowski allowed one run in Game 1, and the game is in a dome. The risk is that a tired Rays bullpen gives up a crooked number early.
Player prop: Jacob Misiorowski under 5.5 strikeouts (about +102 to +110 at most books, per ScoresAndOdds). MLB.com calls Tampa Bay the most contact-oriented lineup in the majors this season, and Misiorowski struck out only three Rays in five innings in Game 1. The risk is that he goes deep and racks up whiffs with his best stuff.
FanDuel lineup
FanDuel's single-game format uses six roster spots: one MVP, who earns 1.5 times his points and costs 1.5 times his salary, plus five Flex spots at normal salary and scoring, according to FanDuel Research. The salary cap is $60,000, per DFS Hero's MLB format guide, and lineups must include players from both teams. We could not verify FanDuel salaries for tonight's game from FanDuel or a reputable source quoting them, so this lineup is built on projections and expected batting orders, and salaries are omitted. Check that it fits under the cap in the app.
MVP: Jackson Chourio, Brewers LF. His 10 hits through four games tie Babe Ruth's 1928 record, per MLB.com, and he bats leadoff against an expected Rays bullpen game.
Flex: Cooper Pratt, Brewers SS. He went 4 for 5 with the go-ahead homer in Game 4, per Baseball-Reference.
Flex: William Contreras, Brewers C. He hits cleanup and had three hits in Game 3, per Baseball-Reference.
Flex: Christian Yelich, Brewers DH. He walked twice in Game 4 and hits third, ahead of Contreras.
Flex: Chandler Simpson, Rays LF. He had three hits in Game 4 and loaded the bases in the 12th, and his speed adds stolen-base upside.
Flex: Liam Hicks, Rays C. He had two hits Tuesday, including a key single in the 12th-inning rally, MLB.com reported.
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World Series record
World Series Line record: 3-7-1 (W-L-P)
Game 4, Brewers moneyline (-124): Loss. The Rays won 4-3 in 12 innings.
Game 4, Over 7 runs (-114): Push. Exactly seven total runs.
Game 4, Griffin Jax under 10.5 outs recorded: Loss. He pitched four innings, 12 outs.
Game 3, Rays moneyline (-121): Loss. The Brewers won 10-1.
Game 3, Under 7 runs (-110): Loss. Eleven total runs.
Game 3, Robert Gasser under 3.5 strikeouts: Win. He struck out three in six innings.
Game 2, Rays moneyline (even): Loss. The Brewers won 5-4.
Game 2, Under 6.5 runs: Loss. Nine total runs.
Game 2, Drew Rasmussen over 16.5 outs recorded: Loss. He recorded 11 outs.
Game 1, Under 6.5 runs: Win. The Brewers won 3-2.
Game 1, Jacob Misiorowski under 6.5 strikeouts: Win. He struck out three in five innings.
Game 5 (tonight): Brewers moneyline, Under 6.5 and Misiorowski under 5.5 strikeouts are pending. We will grade them in the next World Series Line column.
The FanDuel lineup is for fun and is not graded.
Sources
MLB.com: When is Brewers vs. Rays World Series Game 5? Date, time and lineups
MLB.com: Rays win World Series Game 4
MLB.com: Rays rally in 12th to win Game 4
MLB.com: Stats and facts from Rays' World Series Game 4 win
Baseball-Reference: 2026 World Series Game 4 box score and play-by-play
Associated Press via ABC News: Rays stun Brewers with rally in 12th inning and force World Series Game 5
Associated Press: Brewers aim to clinch World Series in Game 5 against Rays
VegasInsider: Brewers vs. Rays odds and line movement
ScoresAndOdds: Brewers vs. Rays odds and player props
FanDuel Research: FanDuel launches new single-game DFS format
DFS Hero: MLB roster formats and salary caps
Cover photo: Jacob Misiorowski pitching for the Brewers, June 2025, by Drovetochicago, via Wikimedia Commons, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0
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